What Each NBA Team Should Do With Its 2021 First Round Selection, Picks 2-10

This column serves as Part 2 of a three-part series called “What Each NBA Team Should Do With Its First Round Pick In The 2021 NBA Draft.” Part 3 will come on Thursday, with picks 10-30 and looks an some intriguing second round talents.


No. 1, Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State

No. 2, Houston Rockets: Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga

The Rockets seem destined to take Jalen Green with this pick. Trading up for Cunningham, who they are allegedly interested in and would make sense given Houston’s array of future draft picks and Cunningham’s prospectus, is perhaps a better option. But the Rockets can split the cake if they instead take Jalen Suggs, who’s the only player in this class in the same tier as Cunningham.

Suggs is a classic high floor player with his passing, instincts and addiction to winning. But he has a higher ceiling than that. He possesses a scoring knack seldom seen in guards, using his lean yet sturdy frame to get to the rim and a mechanical but effective jump shot to hit from deep and pull up in transition.

At Gonzaga, Suggs was everywhere on the court. He always seemed to be in the right spot making winning plays – be it a steal, box-out, extra effort on a help defensively, a rebound, or a game-winning shot..

He’s reminiscent of Tyrese Haliburton from last year’s draft class in that sense – a player that this site was way too low on (He was No. 14 on the Hub’s 2020 Big Board). Having Suggs ranked as high as No. 2 might be an overcorrection from that, but Suggs’ shot creation skills give him an extra flavor that Haliburton – as a draft prospect – never let exude.

Houston is at the forefront of a rebuild, but Suggs represents a path down multiple routes. He can play next to John Wall in the short term while representing a path forward and past Wall’s contract. A team with Suggs, a hopefully healthy Wall, Eric Gordon assuming he’s not traded and Christian Wood isn’t terrible. Sprinkle in some Kevin Porter Jr. off the bench, and if the Rockets want to be competitive while stuck with Wall’s salary, that mix of players doesn’t make a great team, but it’s not exactly a bad one. It puts them in contention for a playoff spot.

Suggs also would serve as the next face of the franchise and Wall’s successor at point guard in the long term. He’s the type of player you build around rather than insert as a role guy. His upside is the best player on a championship team.

Suggs’ weaknesses are the expectations. Like Cunningham, projecting anybody as a true 1A offensive option is risky. This is even more true with Suggs, who already does so much on both ends of the court, and isn’t the shooter Cunningham is, limiting his potential as a scorer in the pick and roll game. He’s bigger than one would think, but his lack of immense size at the guard spot, in addition to a lack of moves in isolation, makes him potentially more of a true point guard rather than an all-around offensive creator.

No. 3, Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley, USC

In a way, Mobley should be the Cavaliers’ pick at this spot no matter who is on the board, assuming he’s available. Cleveland might be set on developing its young backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland even further, and Mobley’s unique skill set as a big makes him fit to play anywhere in the frontcourt. The fit is so good that Cunningham, if he were here, may be worth passing on for the Cavs.

But that scenario is unlikely to occur, with Cunningham destined to go No. 1 no matter who is picking. That makes this decision easy for Cleveland.

Mobley is the best player available and with good reason. The 7-footer is an absolute freak for his size and position. He moves as effortlessly as a wing or guard for his size – the only prospects in recent years who comes close to matching Mobley’s mobility are Oneyka Onkongwu in 2020 and Bam Adebayo in 2017, and both of those players are at least three inches shorter than Mobley.

Mobley’s game is simply beautiful. He’s not much of a bruiser or a post-up player thanks to a thin frame, but his athleticism and soft hands make him deadly on the roll. His height allows him to shoot over anyone – even the tallest bigs – with jumpers, hooks and curls. While Mobley won’t bang, his quick feet and athleticism gives him the ability to take his time before attacking a defender – one he will almost certainly beat. In addition to his work as a true center, Mobley can shoot it from anywhere. On a short roll, he can pull up from the mid-range while creating the mirage that he’s diving to the hoop. He can pop instead of roll out of the pick and drain a three with an effortless stroke. He has shot creation skills as well with his knack for shooting, touch and athleticism. At the same time, he doesn’t need the ball, because he’s a capable shooter from beyond the arc and moves around like a slashing wing trying to find an open spot on the court to spot-up from.

That’s just the start of it, too. Mobley’s not quite Nikola Jokic, but has an amazing passing gene for someone his size. He can handle and take dribble-handoffs, and have the offense anchored around him at the elbow. With some seasoning as a ball-handler and an expanding knowledge bank, it’s not far-fetched to say that he could be a lead ball-handler someday.

On the other end, Mobley is just as special. The athleticism on the offensive side of the floor translates perfectly to defense, where the former Trojan can switch and guard 2-5. He’s a menace at the rim, blocking anything in sight and using those quick feet to help and recover to wherever. Teams simply can’t hunt in the pick and roll – he’s too fluid to let a screen disrupt his movement and stands a chance against almost any ball-handler in that scenario (aside from much smaller, craftier guards).

So how is Mobley not the No. 2 overall pick, or let alone the first? He has very few weaknesses – the first being that despite his skills as a rim protector, his thin frame will likely see him suffer against beefer bigs like Joel Embiid and Jokic. The second is a reaction to the first. If he can’t hang against those players, then who does his team have to put on the floor to help handle them, and what kind of problems does that cause late in the postseason when unathletic bigs are hunted and usually played off the floor?

The value of bigs overall still plays its part here. Sure, Mobley himself projects as a player able to stay on the court in those situations, but does his defense – or someone else’s in spite of Mobley’s limitations thanks to that thin frame – actually hurt against teams that can get away with going against the grain? That list is bigger than it seems– the Lakers, Sixers, Nuggets, Bucks, Suns and Pelicans are all doing it with success or likely will be soon. 

In addition, the fact that a player can do everything Mobley does at his size at the NBA level seems a bit unreasonable. Every USC game of his was a show, but the Pac-12 wasn’t exactly college basketball’s greatest display last season. Can Mobley do all of the things he displayed at the next level? If he truly can, then he could very well be the best player in this draft years from now.

That said, Mobley is a fantastic prospect, and the Cavaliers should be ecstatic that they’ll likely be able to take him here on Thursday night. Mobley’s versatility allows them to play him at the 4-spot if they re-sign Jarrett Allen to play center, which will protect Mobley from bigger guys but allow Cleveland to deploy him as a switching defensive menace who can simultaneously protect Allen against more mobile bigs. If Allen and the Cavs part ways, then Mobley slides right into the 5-hole, and likely struggles defensively in certain matchups but punishes unathletic bigs on the other end.

No. 4, Toronto Raptors: Jalen Green, G-League Ignite

The Raptors need a star – and one who can be a star right away. 

That’s why Toronto takes Jalen Green here, who despite having two players ranked ahead of him on the Hub’s board, can be that.

Let’s first start with the players we don’t have Toronto taking. More in-depth scouting reports will be found in the next two picks, but Jonathan Kuminga, despite being the better prospect, is not an immediate help to the Raptors, whose roster won a NBA Championship two years ago and is not far off from being there again. Kuminga may be a better player than Green someday, but his rawness on both sides of the ball makes inferior to Green right now.

There’s perhaps a better case for Scottie Barnes going to the Raptors here. Toronto needs more size, and likely has a hole at guard assuming Kyle Lowry signs elsewhere (Suggs seems likely to be here for the Raptors Thursday night, which is insane and would be a home run for them to draft). Barnes can arguably fill both of those roles, as his passing instincts are rare for a player with his size and frame and his defensive acumen and ability is the best in the draft. But he’s a lock at either position, and probably fits best as a Draymond Green-style player offensively – someone who can screen and roll or be anchored at the elbow throwing darts to teammates. Using him solely as a rim protector – which Toronto needs – wastes his true potential.

So, enter Green. Pascal Siakam is a fine, solid player. But his half-court and isolation scoring went off the deep end after a brutal performance in the Bubble in 2020 – the Celtics seemingly figured him out in that second round series last Fall, and he never recovered. Fred VanVleet is the same level of offensive player as Siakam, as he can get hot one night and carry the team, but isn’t a crunch-time scorer made for deep playoff runs.

Toronto needs someone like Green – who’s best skill is scoring and who can do so in bunches. He’s their best bet in the short-term to pull them out of the league’s middle class.

That said, Green as a prospect is not perfect. While scoring is his best skill, it might be the only one he has. He’s a weak passer for someone who projects as a No. 1 offensive option, and doesn’t have the best game in and out of the pick and roll. Green is a high-usage player, who loves isolations and high-usage possessions. It’s not totally a bad thing if the ball consistently goes in, but players like Green – who are purely scorers and don’t bring anything else to the table aside from it – tend to have their ceiling capped in the NBA.

Those players are not bad – Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Donovan Mitchell come to mind. But teams like Washington and Utah seemed capped out at second-round playoff exits with those types of players as its 1As. With two-way threats like Kuminga available, a Green-clone in James Bouknight still on the board and potentially Suggs or Mobley in reach on Thursday night, Green’s ceiling just isn’t worth reaching for at the top of this class. For Toronto though, it is.

No. 5, Orlando Magic: Jonathan Kuminga, G-League Ignite

Sure, this is the classic Orlando pick – a long, athletic guy who’s raw and has problems shooting.

But the Magic have room for error. First, they own this pick and No. 8 overall, allowing them to take a swing with one of the spots. Second, if the past four years are any indication, Orlando’s front office led by John Hammond and Jeff Weltman have unlimited job security – that duo entered a rebuilding situation four years ago, took the team nowhere, and have now entered their second rebuilding phase. It is incredibly hard to not get anywhere at all when building a team up from nothing.

With those two things in my mind, Kuminga should be the pick. There’s a case for him to be a top-three ceiling player in this class, as his two-way skill set and athletic wing frame is comparable to no one ahead of him.

Kuminga is raw as all hell. He needs to fine-tune his shot selection, and he can be too aggressive at times on the ball and take shots away from those who potentially deserve it more. Despite his athleticism, his defense can waver – most of this may be due to his age and lack of development thus far. 

But the seeds are there. If he can put it together, Kunminga could develop into a Kawhi Leonard-type player, where he’s one of the game’s best defenders and not only is a No. 1 option offensively, but can handle the ball and initiate the offense as well. For better or for worse, Kuminga plays at his own pace, and establishes control over a game that way – similar to the way Leonard does. That’s a rare skill to have – it’s the same reason Cunningham is going No. 1 overall. 

Throughout the last decade, the Magic have had solid pieces. But there was never a guy to bring all together with his star power, and it’s why Orlando has been stuck in the dirt for years on end. Kuminga is no guarantee to be that guy either, but he has the best shot out of anyone available.

Barnes is the widely expected pick here, and it makes sense. The Magic don’t have a big man they can be confident in, as Mo Bamba has seemingly busted and Wendell Carter Jr. is not the player we’d thought he’d be out of college. But at No. 8 overall, the Magic should have another option to fill that spot, and whoever may be there doesn’t have close to the ceiling that Kuminga does.

No. 6, Oklahoma City Thunder: Scottie Barnes, Florida State

The Thunder are living a blank check lifestyle.

With 17 first-round picks over the next seven drafts starting Thursday night, Oklahoma City can essentially make any offer they want to, and subsequently, draft whoever they want to.

It seems as though they’re already trying. As written on Tuesday, the Thunder have reached what they considered their ceiling to be on a package offered for No. 1 overall, and it’s not enough for Detroit to accept given that there’s a potentially generational player on the board. It’s odd that the Thunder won’t go to the ends the Pistons want, because they certainly can, but there’s also a good case that protecting some of those draft assets to trade up for another generational prospect in a future draft – or a disgruntled star elsewhere in the league – is worth it as well. 

If the Thunder don’t move up for a shot at one of the top three prospects, all of whom should be held in similar regard by their respective teams compared to the Pistons and Cunningham, Barnes is the best player available.

The Thunder have cornerstones of their future at guard and on the wing already in Shai Gilgenous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort and Darius Bazley. Down low, there’s less of a future, with Aleksej Pokuševski being a complete wild card in terms of which way he goes as an NBA player (or not – that’s legitimately still up in the air).

With Barnes, the Thunder can get someone they can play anywhere. Likely used best as a screener and roll man and switchable big, Barnes’ athleticism makes him a matchup nightmare on both ends. Offensively, he’ll be impossible to stop when heading toward the rim. With a good passing guard, lobs should become a staple play of his. He also has the ability to initiate an offense – some see Barnes as a point guard given how good his feel for the game is. That might be a tad ambitious, but there’s no reason he can’t be an anchor at the elbow with sets running around him, or bring the ball up the court at times and initiate from the top of the key. 

Barnes is the best defensive player in the draft, too. He’s legitimately switchable 1-5, which automatically makes him one of a select few in the NBA. He’s got the special ability to play the equivalent of free safety on the basketball court by manning the open space on the court and quickly jumping to wherever the help is needed or the switch is to occur. His recovery time is that small, thanks to a chiseled, long frame and ballerina feet.

For whoever takes him, Barnes is an extremely safe pick. The only concern is his lack of a jump-shot, which is brutally bad and has no means of getting better given his poor free-throw shooting. In minutes he does play point guard, the lack of an outside shot could throw off his team’s offense – the same way it has to Philadelphia and Ben Simmons all these years.

No. 7, Golden State Warriors: James Bouknight, UCONN

If they don’t move them, the Warriors need to be getting two things out of their two lottery picks.

  1. Basketball competence. 
  2. Consistent shot-making.

Last year was just not good enough in those two departments. For example, Kelly Oubre Jr.’s line left you wondering if he was wildly underrated or overrated every night. Juan Tocanso-Anderson is certainly a rotation player, but the days of him starting need to be over. James Wiseman was simply not ready for the minutes allocated to him, and his eventual injury forced players much less talented than him into the rotation.

Of course, upgrades might be more bankable on the trade market rather than in rookies. But those options are much different than they were in 2020, when Golden State was picking No. 2 in a perceived weak draft. Trading last year’s pick for a star or selling low on it and acquiring two or three average to above-average rotation players was a better choice than taking a swing on whatever prospects were available. 

This year, a trade for a star player is the only real option outside of using the picks. The talent available at No. 7 and No. 14 is not far removed from – or perhaps even better than – trading for NBA-qualified veterans or rotation players. 

But does a star exist? It seems like neither Damian Lillard nor Bradley Beal are officially available yet. Ben Simmons would be the third name but picks No. 7 and No. 14 seem like a lot for someone who would essentially serve the same role as Draymond Green on the Warriors current squad.

It seems as though the Warriors are stuck using these picks, which isn’t totally a bad thing, as James Bouknight would provide both of the traits Golden State needs.

Bouknight is a very similar prospect to Green in the sense that both have only one real skill in scoring. But the Warriors desperately need that around Stephen Curry and the returning Klay Thompson to avoid a similar outcome as last season. Bouknight’s shot bag is deep, and he projects as a classic 2-guard who could fit in alongside Curry and Thompson. 

Bouknight has a chance to be a bit more efficient than Green despite his poor outside shooting. He’s not quite as high usage as Green is, displaying more selflessness as an off-ball offensive player despite bad three-point percentages. His slim, small frame may be a worry when cutting and slashing, but his athleticism translates to him getting to the rim well when the ball is in his hand.

If Bouknight’s threes can go down, then he’s got similar ability to Curry in the sense that he never stops moving and trying to get open. His shot creation skills make him more bouncy and slippery at the point of attack than Curry, which could allow Bouknight to still be effective if the shot never comes along.

Bouknight tries hard defensively. His small, slight frame puts a cap on his defensive ceiling that he can’t control. But the Warriors, for once, need offense with these picks. The other side of the ball is, for once, not a worry at all.

No. 8, Orlando Magic: Alperen Sengun, Turkey

After taking a high-upside wing at No. 5 overall, the Magic come back and address their problems down low here at No. 8 overall with Sengun.

Sengun is simultaneously one of the most intriguing and confusing prospects in this draft. The things he does to his opponents on tape make you wonder if he’s playing against YMCA dudes, but the Turkish League is a legitimate association, and Sengun put up historic numbers in it and won MVP at just 18 years old.

So how does a non-switching, defensively challenged, throwback offensive big end up ranking ninth on the Hub’s big board and go eighth in the draft? 

Sengun is simply a bucket. He will almost immediately challenge Joel Embiid for the best footwork in the league, which he uses to dance with bigger, slower players in the post with his back-to-the-basket. His quick feet also allow him to attack off the dribble from the perimeter and get to the rim, a skill that seems hard to believe until you see it. 

On the roll, Sengun can throw dimes to shooters, keeping defenders honest and reluctant to help inside. This opens up the lane and rim for him, which is an easy two points every time. 

Sengun’s passing also allows a team to use him as an offensive hub at the elbow, where he can dot up opposing defenses with craft and I.Q. 

There are serious limitations with Sengun, though. While his bounce off-the-dribble when driving would lead one to believe that he has untapped potential as a shooter and switchable big, neither is guaranteed. Sengun’s quick feet do not translate to defense at all, and his three-point percentage is quite low on not much volume. Not only is Sengun not switchable, but his defense in every type of coverage is poor. He’s also a little short on height, which doesn’t give him advantages on the defensive end.

Does that combination of traits in a Magic uniform sound familiar? Sengun is extremely comparable to former Orlando center Nikola Vucevic with his dazzling footwork, passing skills and lack of defensive talent, but he might have a higher ceiling thanks to his capabilities off the dribble and work from the perimeter.

No. 9, Sacramento Kings: Keon Johnson, Tennessee

Texas’ Kai Jones would make a lot of sense here for the Kings given their need for a big man, but Sacramento also desperately needs defense, which is Keon Johnson’s calling card. 

Johnson should be expected to make a similar defensive impact Isaac Okoro did for the Cavaliers last season as a rookie. He’s a lockdown wing defender who grinds through screens and has quick feet. He’s a tad short, but has a long wingspan and might be one of the best athletes in the draft – June’s Combine proved that.

His ability on the offensive side of the ball is up for debate. Johnson certainly projects to be better on that end than Okoro was or ever will be, but to what extent is unknown. He was a little too ball-dominant at times at Tennessee and took shots at times when he would have been much better off putting in Jaden Springer’s hands instead. But those shots at times were impressive when they went in, and tapped into Johnson’s perhaps unexpected potential as a go-to scorer.

The Kings could benefit from a guy like that. They currently lack a star offensive player on their roster, although Tyrese Haliburton’s second year could bring some upgrades to that department. Regardless of what Johnson does offensively, his defensive presence should make an immediate impact, one that the Kings sorely needs.

No. 10, Memphis Grizzlies: Jalen Johnson, Duke

The Grizzlies need a star.

Ja Morant already is that, but he and Memphis are bogged down by his inefficiencies in the half-court. Morant plays 100 mph, and while that’s not a bad thing, it’s unfortunately not the way things can be all the time.

So the Grizzlies need somewhere else to go for those buckets. As good as he is, Dillion Brooks just isn’t that guy, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is best suited shooting from the corner and wrecking havoc defensively.

Jalen Johnson has his warts. He has no jump-shot. He left Duke after his relationship with Coach K soured and his performance dipped. He’s done the same at other schools. His effort wanes on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense.

But the Grizzlies need a star and are one of few teams in the league that can afford to take a gamble. That star is their only missing piece, now that they’ve installed a greater veteran presence on their roster and added extra draft capital thanks to Monday’s trade with the Pelicans, who initially owned this pick.

The trade was smart for both sides. Memphis downgraded at center with Steven Adams but at least replaced the leadership Jonas Valancuinas brought to the table. It also added to it with Eric Bledsoe who, despite his selfish tendencies, can at least be a bit of a mentor to Morant, as the two’s games at one point were quite similar. They also picked up an extra first in addition to moving up to this spot, giving them extra protection if this pick or future ones bust.

New Orleans got rid of two massive financial mistakes in Bledsoe and Adams, and only moved down seven spots while giving up one of its billion other future picks in the process. They also improved their current roster, as Valanciunas is a much better fit next to Zion Williamson in the front court thanks to his ability to shoot threes.

Both teams are better off, and if both hit on their draft picks, it’s essentially a win-win.

Memphis may not hit on Johnson though. What he’s guaranteed to bring to the table is an intriguing skillset built around his astute passing gene, which is rare for a wing his size. He’s a wizard in transition and would be a dynamic threat next to Morant. In the half-court, his vision is still pristine, but his lack of a jump-shot makes his constant yet impressive drives to the rim predictable – he’s not a Ben Simmons/Giannis Antentokoumpo body mold, making those play types much easier to stop.

But the Grizzlies need someone who can be any type of threat off the dribble. Johnson’s frame makes him much more imposing than Morant, and his passing skills give Memphis something else to bank on. With youth everywhere and only one piece missing, the Grizzlies are best off taking a chance. Johnson is a big one, but he just might be worth it.

AD, Luka, Zion, Cade?? Why The 2021 NBA Draft’s No. 1 Pick Isn’t Getting Enough Love

This column serves as Part 1 of a three-part series called “What Each NBA Team Should Do With Its First Round Pick In The 2021 NBA Draft.” Part 2 will come on Wednesday, spotlighting another top prospect and unveiling another team’s projected pick before Thursday’s first round mock debuts.

No. 1, Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State

After one of the NBA’s best drafts in 2020, the Pistons found luck in 2021 by winning the lottery and being in position to select Cunningham, who’s long been the No. 1 prospect on the Hub’s board and on many boards dating back to when he was in high school. 

That recognition comes with good reason.  Cunningham is potentially generationally – his prospectus is the fourth-best we’ve seen since 2010, after Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson and Luka Doncic.  Cunningham is that good.

It starts with his size.  At 6’8, Cunningham has an immense feel for the game and can make any pass in the book.  His height allows him to pass out of contested drives to the rim and throw dimes at angles few else can.  In the pick and roll, Cunningham’s size makes him possible to guard when he attacks the rim, and gives him an added advantage when making the pass to the roll man.

Cunningham’s ability to create his own shot is also incredibly developed.  He doesn’t miss as a shooter, although his percentage from deep will likely decrease in his early NBA years before rising back up again.  His size allows him to bully guys when driving and punish smaller guards with short wingspans when pulling up.  He’s not an amazing ball-handler given how special his passing is, but his knockdown shooting and frame can make up for that in the short term.

With so much hype and skill, it’s fair to wonder whether Cunningham can reach the ceiling pegged for him.  Perhaps the most indicative indicator of that resides in just how much Cunningham did for Oklahoma State this past year.  None of his teammates were close to NBA-level prospects, and none of them will likely be in the future.  Opponents swarmed Cunningham defensively and helped off his teammates in an ultra-aggressive way.  Yet, Cunningham still rallied to the Cowboys to an NCAA Tournament berth, put up impressive numbers and cemented his status as the best player in his class.

Given his point guard traits, Cunningham may seem like an odd fit next to Detroit’s second-year guard Killian Hayes, who the Pistons took No. 6 overall in 2020.  But the beauty of a player like Cunningham is his versatility on the offensive end.  Need a point guard?  Great, Cunningham is your guy.  Have one and need scoring next to him?  Cunningham’s projects as a No. 1 offensive option in an offense in addition to his passing ability.  Both guard spots full?  Cunningham’s 6’8 frame and lights-out shooting makes him a fit on the wing, and his passing comes as an added and perhaps overqualified bonus.  He’s the perfect tall, ball-dominant wing every NBA team craves.

On top of all of that, Cunningham is already a valuable defender off the ball thanks to his lengthy frame, and could develop into an on-ball pest with more effort and development.

We’ve seen this type of player fail before – AKA Markelle Fultz in 2017. Fultz projected as the offensive hub and creator Cunningham is, and played for a struggling college team. Cunningham has extra height on Fultz though, and plays the game at his own pace – something that Fultz’s struggled with on the court and off it coming into the draft. Additionally, Cunningham’s a better passer, has more feel and will have to purposely try not to make an impact defensively given his size. The same could not be said for Fultz.

Detroit has seemingly rebuffed offers from Houston at No. 2 overall and Oklahoma City at No. 6 overall to move up. The Pistons are smart to do this, given that Cunningham is a potentially generational player. But Oklahoma City has a lot of ammo, and Detroit would be smart to strangle them with picks until they tap out. The Thunder likely have their cut-off point, and it’s probably not enough for Detroit to give in.

2021 NBA Finals Preview

Whether he plays or not, Giannis Antetokounmpo is a problem in the 2021 NBA Finals.

For Milwaukee, it’s obvious: Antetokounmpo’s presence is the only guaranteed advantage the Bucks hold against the Suns, and even that statement has its limits.

And for Phoenix, the same problem that almost every team in the NBA has faced over the past two years sticks out like a sore thumb: Antetokounmpo is a matchup nightmare, with positives in every defensive matchup or scheme tough to find.

But for the Suns, some do exist.  In the two regular season games between these two teams – which were both worthy of regular season Game of the Year consideration – Deandre Ayton did an impressive job defending Antetokounmpo on drives and postups, and forced jump shots instead.  He kept a low base, used his hands and moved his feet, and didn’t ever find himself overshooting his eventual recovery in the pick and roll.

Those performances came before Ayton’s ascension as a valuable playoff performer – before he gave Anthony Davis problems in the first round, before he played MVP Nikola Jokic to a draw in the second round and before he didn’t let the Los Angeles Clippers take advantage of him with their small-ball ways in the Western Conference Finals.

So assuming Ayton is the primary defender on Antetokounmpo, that is, when he plays, the matchup may not be as much of a lost cause for Phoenix as one may think.

Milwaukee can make Ayton work and let Antetokounmpo shine by using him as the roll man in the PNR at an even higher usage than it has during the regular season and playoffs, both of which saw a much-needed increase in those types of plays.  This forces maximum movement from Ayton, which while improved, is likely the weakest part of his game defensively aside from some general wavering effort at times.  If done enough – and successfully – it could force the Suns to switch that action more frequently to give Ayton a break.  Depending on the ball-handler, that could pit one of the Suns smaller or more challenged defensive players – Devin Booker or Chris Paul – on Antetokounmpo when he rolls, which is tough sledding for Phoenix.

Of course, the Suns avoid this by putting a more defensively-apt player on the PNR ball-handler – likely Jrue Holiday.  But that requires sacrificing Mikal Bridges – who’s almost certainly going to be glued to Khris Middleton in this series and isn’t someone the Bucks are going to pick on – or Jae Crowder, another astute Antetokounmpo defender.

If Ayton struggles, Crowder is the Suns secret weapon.  He was one of the main reasons for the Bucks’ colossal letdown in the Bubble last season, acting as a one-man wall against Antetokounmpo’s constant straight-line, bull-rush drives to the rim.  Milwaukee’s offense has evolved past that, thanks in part to Middleton’s elevated shot-making and the presence of Holiday as a true point guard.  But Crowder’s history is a positive sign for Phoenix, and can be used at its deposition if Antetokounmpo puts Ayton through hell.

The Bucks don’t have to rely on Antetokounmpo so heavily, even though it gives them the best shot to win the series.  Middleton has proven that he can play to the level of the best player on a championship team at times – his takeover ability has been on display twice this postseason.  Holiday’s shot creation and jump shooting numbers have plummeted in these playoffs, but he’ll likely have one of Booker or Paul on him, which could be a favorable matchup thanks to Booker’s deficiencies defending one-on-one and Paul’s multiple nagging injuries.

Milwaukee might also be forced to not rely on Antetokounmpo.  Listed as questionable for Game 1, his status for the series is completely up in the air.  If he doesn’t play a majority of the games, the Bucks chances of winning this series are quite low.

The MVP of these playoffs so far has been either Booker or Paul.  We’ll see if either of them play at that same level during this series, and in turn win it, but up until this point, the top of the ballot belongs to one or the other. 

That’s why Antetokounmpo’s presence is critical.  As well as Middleton has played, and as high as Holiday’s ceiling is as a creator for himself and others, Booker and Paul are just better at the top skills that Milwaukee’s duo possesses.

The Suns also have many ways to toy with Milwaukee, with Antetokounmpo in the fold or not.  While half of the Bucks’ demise against the Heat in the second round of the playoffs last season had to do with its poor offensive strategy involving the two-time MVP, the other half was its drop PNR defense and lack of switching.

The Bucks experimented with switching throughout the 2020-21 regular season, and deployed it at times against Brooklyn in the second round and in the final two games of their Eastern Conference Finals matchup with the Hawks.  It was successful, but perhaps that was out of necessity – Brook Lopez’s constant drifts to the arc of the restricted area were giving Trae Young and company floater after floater. Lopez at least put something menacing in front of drivers.

Playing drop coverage against the Suns is a death sentence.  Booker and Paul have ate well in the postseason with mid-range shots – they’ve been able to get shots off with little space or create it with their crossovers and elevation on jump shots.  If Lopez is dropping as far as he can, Booker and Paul could average 30 points per game this series.  Those are not the guys Milwaukee should be letting beat them – at least willingly.

Lopez’s dropping in the PNR limits opportunities for Ayton offensively, although his sneaky face-up game could emerge in this series.  Ayton is quicker and more athletic than Lopez – he’ll have the advantage if he wants to dabble in some shot creation.  

If and when he plays, the Bucks also have Antetokounmpo to deploy defensively.  The Suns are not going to want him switching or dropping in the PNR, as he matches up way better with Ayton on the roll and could swallow whatever Phoenix guard is the ball-handler.  If Lopez struggles against Ayton, and is toasted when the Bucks potentially switch, Antetokounmpo at the five is the Bucks’ last resort – and it’s a pretty good one.

Lopez’s shortcomings on defense in this series could be made up for on the other end.   Him and Antetokounmpo are a size nightmare for the Suns, who could be forced to play Dario Saric next to Ayton for more minutes than they’d like to.  While it’s possible Ayton could do a good job on Antetokounmpo, Lopez’s ability to space the floor forces Phoenix to give up serious height on three-point attempts, and his post-ups could be overpowering against a smaller wing. 

For the all perhaps overbearing all talk about the NBA being a make-or-miss league these days, parts of that description hold very true in this series.  If the Suns hit enough shots, they can make up for what they’re giving up to Lopez – if they hold true to their usual rotations and don’t increase Sarics’s minutes.  

Phoenix also has to hit shots in this sense: outside of Lopez, the Bucks aren’t going to play anyone the Suns can easily hunt on the defensive end.  Holiday, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, PJ Tucker and Lopez (to a certain degree) are all excellent defenders.  Lopez is the only one the Suns have a real advantage against.  When the shots are there against those defenders, they have to go down – that task falls on Booker and Paul maintaining the level of play they have in these playoffs.  If that production from the backcourt is still there, the Suns probably have the best two players on the court, whether Antetokounmpo is playing or not. But Milwaukee’s defense with or without its best players gives it a huge advantage in the series.

This series is incredibly even, which makes Antetokounmpo’s injury hurt bad for Milwaukee and for fans who want an entertaining series.  The Suns win every game he doesn’t play in – the star-power on their end is just too much for the Bucks to overcome.  While it seems likely he plays eventually, the Suns win at least two games in this series with him on the court.  If he misses one or two contests, that could give the Bucks no hope.  Since Antetokounmpo was likely to play in a Game 7 against the Hawks, he should be back for Game 2 if he doesn’t play Tuesday night.  That extra win should give the Suns the boost they need.

Pick: Suns in 7

Previewing Saturday’s NBA Playoff Series, Plus Knicks-Hawks

Below are previews for the NBA first-round playoff series that get underway on Saturday, plus a look at Knicks-Hawks, which gets underway on Sunday.

No. 6 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks

The memories of last year’s second-round series between these two teams are still fresh, and still relevant.

It was only October when the Heat unleashed a barrage of three-pointers, walled off Giannis Antetokounmpo in a way never seen done before and triggered an organizational shift within the Bucks’ franchise after knocking Milwaukee out in six games in last season’s playoffs.  

Much has changed.  As pleaded for after the stunning exit, Milwaukee has a real point guard in Jrue Holiday now, and has also embraced a modern and competitive defensive scheme that doesn’t involve the dropping of every player when the pick is ran against him.  

Milwaukee is also the definitively the better team this time around.  Despite its surreal feeling in the moment, the warning signs for a Miami upset in October were there – and almost all of them played out in real-time.

Miami has struggled in 2020-21 since its defeat of the Bucks and subsequent run to the NBA Finals.  The Heat were one of the teams hardest-hit when the COVID-19 virus made its way through the league early in the season, and other players have dealt with long withstanding injuries, including Jimmy Butler, who when healthy, has played at a level perhaps even higher than the one he reached in last year’s playoffs.

Butler’s performance this season might be Miami’s best case in this series.  With the notable struggles of Antetokounmpo when it comes to shot creation and playoff success, and Milwaukee’s still-present lack of a true ball-dominant superstar, Butler has the chance to be the best player on the floor.  The team with that guy tends to win in the postseason.

Miami might not be able to take advantage of Antetokounmpo like it used to though.  The presence of Holiday has been massive, as Antetokounmpo’s offensive numbers are up again thanks to a lesser, more efficient role in the scheme.  In addition, Khris Middleton has seen his productivity bump up in a larger role.  That type of change is rare, but Middleton has flourished as the Bucks’ No. 1 shot-creator in late-game situations this season.

The bottom line is that the Bucks don’t have to rely on Antetokounmpo like they did the last time these two teams met – or like how they did against Toronto in 2019.  

That gives Milwaukee a huge advantage not just in this series, but going forward throughout the playoffs.  While Middleton and Holiday may not be on the level of Brooklyn’s shot creators – or some of the top guys out West – the allure of both them with the spector of Antetokounmpo is a scary thought.

Miami can counter with Butler, but the Heat have felt like one of those Super Bowl hangover teams we see in the NFL each season.  Whether its their fault or not, the Bubble on top of wonky inconsistency this season seems to have the Heat looking more toward next year.  Assuming Milwaukee doesn’t have the same pettiness with its play against, this very well could be the Bucks’ series.

How can Miami really put up a fight?  In addition to Butler continuing his stellar regular season play, winning the shooting battle would help, but that will be harder this time around thanks to Milwaukee’s willingness to switch and the Heat’s overall lower percentages this year.  Tyler Herro has struggled in his second season, and while still plenty lethal, Duncan Robinson isn’t as surprising anymore to opposing defenses.  Jae Crowder was unprecedentedly hot back in October, and the Heat not only don’t have that going for them, but have struggled to fill the hole he left at that spot, and have resorted to playing Trevor Ariza heavy minutes on the wing.  He and Andre Igoudala probably aren’t the athletic duo you want heading deep into the postseason.

There’s also the Bam Adebayo factor, which is undeniable.  His two-way play is among the best in the league, and he’s incredibly underrated at blowing up any actions while incubating the middle of a defense.  The Heat having him as a card to play cannot be taken lightly.  

Much like the Clippers, the feeling that the Bucks are still fools gold is reasonable and still present.  Miami just might have their number, and that needs to be taken into consideration.  It’s unclear whether this is Milwaukee’s year, but it doesn’t seem like it is Miami’s.  That, in conjunction with the steps the Bucks have taken to ensure last year doesn’t happen again, has Milwaukee in the driver’s seat this time around.

Prediction: Milwaukee in 6

Quick hits on Mavericks-Clippers:

  • The Clippers have perhaps been the league’s most underappreciated team this season.  They’ve kicked butt all year long, thanks to Kawhi Leonard sneakily putting up an All-NBA First Team-caliber season and Paul George returning to his 2019 MVP candidate form.  Los Angeles has retooled their roster and offensive system – Ty Lue has installed strict roles for everyone but his two stars on the court, and it’s worked.  The defense is still ranked concerningly low, but the Clippers have flipped the switch more this season than they did in early 2019-20.
  • Dallas has been the opposite of impressive this year.  COVID-19 and injuries have hit them hard, but time and time again it seems as if the Mavericks just don’t show up for games.  They’ve had a similar vibe as the Celtics – who we’ll address next – where effort and defense just seems optional at times, and it leads to slow starts and extremely poor shooting numbers.  
  • That said, after a slow start, Luka Doncic has put together a top-7-or-so MVP season, and he’s still an absolute force to be reckon with.  The Clippers learned that lesson the hard way in last year’s playoffs, where neither Leonard or George could do much against him.  That was with the backdrop of Doc Rivers in place, and when defensive habits of the team plainly just didn’t exist, though.
  • This time around, the Clippers might be smart to let Doncic eat and focus their resources elsewhere on Dallas’ roster.  If an early postseason exit is in the cards for Dallas, it’ll likely trigger big questions this offseason about the makeup of the team around Doncic.  What’s currently there’s just isn’t good enough. 
  • Doncic has been let down too many times.  If Los Angeles focuses on taking away three-pointers for the likes of Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Richardson and Kristaps Porzingis, then it’s solely a Doncic show.  With the way LA’s two stars have played this season, matching that production should be no problem.
  • Of course, it is still okay to have reasonable doubt about the Clippers after what happened last postseason.  Trusting them, even with the changes they made, is still hard, especially when the defense hasn’t made any real improvement statistically.  Trusting them against a player as good as Doncic is scary as well – he can impact winning in so many ways that it will catch up with you once it’s too late.
  • Still, Dallas has been so hard to trust this year that picking them against a team as talented as the Clippers is just insurmountable.  If LA is flimsy out of the gate, it wouldn’t be surprising, but its culture change should be enough to advance in this series.
  • Prediction: Clippers in 5

No. 7 Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 Brooklyn Nets

The storylines in this series are towering.

The Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett trade, and how Brooklyn is miraculously in a better spot all these years later.  The Kyrie Irving revenge series for both sides.  Boston’s seemingly lost season, and how much fun this would be if Jaylen Brown was healthy and the Celtics still gave a crap. Whether and however the hell the Nets’ big three will sort things out in the postseason, and whether sample size should be damned or not.

Whew.  That’s a lot. Bring it on.

When one team walks out James Harden, Kevin Durant and Irving onto the court, that’s obviously a problem for the opponent.  So how does Boston even go about containing the trio?  

It likely starts with Jayson Tatum – an underrated defender – on Durant.  That’s a huge ask, given that Tatum will have to be the offense’s focal point with Kemba Walker’s struggles.  But the other options are bleak.  When Tatum isn’t the on the floor, the Celtics are looking at Aaron Nesmith or Evan Fournier as their primary defender on Durant, neither of which inspires confidence.  

Who the Celtics put their guards on between Harden and Irving seems interchangeable.  Walker will seemingly be picked on do his smaller size and lesser defensive ability.  With Harden’s acceleration and deceleration ability, he could be fresh meat, but the same could be said for Walker against Irving, who’s finishing ability is perhaps best in the league.

The Celtics would probably like Smart to fluctuate between the two, and give his all equally to each, limiting their total impact.  But Brooklyn will hunt down wherever the mismatch is, and Walker is going to have to do his best to hold his own.

If the Celtics can’t stop Brooklyn, then they’re going to have to outscore them.  Down Brown, whose offensive game just seems to keep elevating every year for the past two seasons, that will be tough.  

Asking Tatum to do what we’ve hoped he’d do season after season in this series is unreasonable.  He’d have to perform like an MVP candidate or perhaps better to give Boston a realistic chance against the Nets without Brown in the fold.  He is Boston’s only source of consistent offense.

If Walker can play at even his 2019-level self – a season in which he played like he was in his prime and led the collective NBA-sphere to believe that with a jump from Tatum, Boston wouldn’t lose much with Walker replacing Irving – then Boston has better odds of matching Brooklyn’s output.  But Walker’s been a shell of himself due to injuries and a seemingly overall decline in play this year, and once he’s expectedly put through the ringer of numerous Nets screens and picks, being an overwhelmingly net positive will be tough.

Effort could play a huge part in this series, and that applies to both teams.  Boston has had spurts throughout the season where it could simply care less about defense, and it has resulted in early deficits that have been unrecoverable at times.  Against the Brooklyn Big Three, a lack of attention defensively is likely an automatic loss.  At the same time, focusing that energy on offense may also be necessary as well.

The Celtics could gain some luck in the series if Brooklyn decides not to kick it into gear early on.  With teams as good as the Nets, that can tend to be an early theme in games and the series overall.  A laziness from Brooklyn on either end of the floor gives Boston a serious boost. 

It’s likely impossible, but the Celtics can win the series if two things happen: 1) In each game, they take out or get less-than-expected performances from two of three Brooklyn stars and 2) Tatum matches or out-performs the one Nets star left standing.  It will take a stroke of luck, but Tatum’s shown he’s able to play at that level.  With Durant likely guarding him, it will take a real show.

While Brooklyn hasn’t proven anything, its talent is undeniable.  Boston’s ability throughout this season to seemingly lose to anyone on a given night in addition to the latest injuries they have suffered make this series a real long shot for them.  If the Celtics win or make it close one, we’ll be looking at Tatum as an early MVP candidate next season.

Prediction: Brooklyn in 5 

Quick hits on Trail Blazers-Nuggets

  • With or without Jamal Murray, this is a titanic matchup.
  • Murray in the fold would have made this is a classic, but it’s still a hotly contested battle without him.  Neither of these teams play much defense, though the Nuggets’ accquisition of Aaron Gordon seemed to have fixed their biggest problem – when Murray was healthy, the Nuggets looked like the second-best team in the West with Gordon in the middle of their defense.  
  • Portland wasn’t quite the worst defensive team in the league this year statistically, but the eye test made them seem like it, perhaps because of how talented they are on the other end.  Their swapping of Gary Trent Jr. for Norman Powell only expounded the problem.  
  • With all of that said, it’s fair to proclaim that defense may not matter at all this series, with Gordon and Robert Covington being the potential outliers.
  • Damian Lillard has once again been on a late season tear, though it hasn’t been as potent as the ones he’s had in years past.  A top-10 MVP candidate once again, Lillard has the chance to be the best player on the floor in this series from a shot-creation stand-point, depending on how much more Nikola Jokic can do.
  • Portland has zero answers for Jokic.  Jursurf Nurkic has topped out defensively, and his limited mobility hasn’t improved the Trail Blazers’ overall defensive numbers this season.  Jokic has evolved into the type of player who can get practically any shot he wants and do whatever he pleases on the court.  At his size, there’s no stopping that no matter what your personnel is.
  • Then there is Michael Porter Jr. to deal with, who has turned into the scoring wing we hoped he’d be in the absence of Murray.  His numbers have been obscene since stepping into a larger role, and will put a huge burden on Covington, whose defense has just slipped more and more over the years – he has not been worth the two first round picks Portland gave up for him in the offseason.
  • Denver has guys to throw at Lillard – the absence of Murray does not hurt them here.  PJ Dozier, Will Barton, Austin Rivers and even Aaron Gordon can all use their length and defensive prowess to slow him down.  In addition, all could be effective trapping against Lillard – though that comes with riskier sacrifices as Powell is much more of a threat than anyone else Portland has had in the past around its two guards.
  • CJ McCollum has a chance to make even more of a name for himself this postseason.  If Denver throws all it can at Lillard, McCollum and Powell still represent a potent punch.  Like Lillard, McCollum could be the best shot creator on the floor in this series.  If he can step into that, Denver is in trouble without its franchise guard on the floor.
  • This might be the hardest series to pick in the first round.  Both teams are equally unstoppable for each other – Jokic will pick Portland apart, where as Denver just may not have enough to account for all of the Trail Blazers’ scoring options.  That said, Portland might have no realistic shot at stopping the Jokic-MPJ duo, and the Nuggets can throw guys at Lillard while using Gordon as a switcher.  This series goes seven games, but any potential outcome is on the table here.
  • Prediction: Nuggets in 7

No. 5 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 4 New York Knicks

This is simply an awesome series because it seemed impossible before the season that this would ever occur.

You cannot go wrong with either Monty Williams or Tom Thibodeau for Coach of the Year.  The Hub had the Knicks projected as the worst team in basketball this season, and they’re now in the playoffs.

There’s not much credit to spread around for the Knicks’ success aside from Thibs.  He’s turned Julius Randle into a legitimate No. 1 option on a good team via drives and isolated pull-up jumpers – an astonishing accomplishment in player development given Randle’s former prowess as a traditional power forward and his inability to do the same just a year ago.  The Knicks are fourth in defense and have Nerlens Noel playing a leading role in that. They also have Derrick Rose upgrading their rotation and are getting a diamond in the rough with a late first-rounder in Immanuel Quickley.

Atlanta’s rise is less stunning but perhaps as dramatic.  Expected to take a step forward this year, a slow start due to a faltering coaching situation and numerous injuries to key contributors led to a late season rise from the Hawks and Nate McMillan, who also has a good case for COTY if not for his lack of games at the helm.  The Hawks have been a different team under him, as Bogdan Bogdanovic has been the microwave scorer they hoped while Trae Young has underwhelmed but not gotten worse this season.  In addition, Clint Capela has been purely dominant, and has a top-3 case for Defensive Player of the Year and a spot on Third Team All-NBA, and DeAndre Hunter – when healthy (which he should be for these playoffs)– has hit the ceiling pegged for him as an impact defender.

Despite all of that, this matchup is quite simple.  If the Knicks’ success this season still seems improbable and unexplainable, that’s because it is.  This is going to be and has been the Randle show, and if you can stop him, the Knicks are much easier to reign in.  

The Hawks have options.  Hunter’s health is key, but throwing a big, strong wing at Randle who outmatches his foot speed and will force him to settle for jumpers is a solid choice for McMillan.  Capela has earned the right of drivers to respect his menacing as a rim protector – guys don’t like going down there against him.  Randle could be in for the same experience, even though his size greatly outweighs those who typically press against Capela.  John Collins gives the Hawks a little bit of both Hunter and Capela, with size but quicker athleticism.  Tony Snell – whose offensive production has been amongst the top in the league statistically this season – is another long athlete Atlanta could deploy.

How much is Randle up for?  That’s the big question in this series.  He’ll likely need to elevate his game once again to give New York a chance.

The Hawks seem to have just too many weapons.  Even if the mix of Elfrid Payton and perhaps Frank Ntilikina can swallow Young, the Knicks are likely throwing Reggie Bullock at Bogdanovic, and still have other shooters and scorers like Kevin Huerter, Snell, Collins, Cam Reddish and Lou Williams to deal with.  While Quickley can get hot seemingly any night, and RJ Barrett can pour in points as well, Randle is going to have to put the team on his back in ways he hasn’t done before.  If New York wins this series, Randle comes out of it as a favorite to actually make All-NBA next year, if he doesn’t already sneak on this season. 

Prediction: Atlanta in 5

What Each NFL Team Should Do With Its First Round Pick

The following is a culmination of the Hub’s work on the 2021 NFL Draft.  Below is a What-Should-Happen Mock Draft of Thursday’s first round that features no trades, followed by a diagnosis of notable prospects who were left out of the first round and big boards of players at almost every position.

Here we go.

No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars: QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

Lawrence will have the chance to put the Jaguars legitimately on the map for the first time in a while, and he’s not walking into a tire-fire situation that most teams selecting No. 1 overall are.

The former Clemson star with have good weapons and smart coaching around him in Year 1.  Urban Meyer as a play-caller should make Jacksonville an at-least decent team next season, assuming he doesn’t lose the locker room as a rookie head coach who’s never led at the NFL level.

Lawrence is about as sure of a thing as one can get.  His only caveat is whether he can live up to it.

No. 2, New York Jets: QB, Justin Fields, Ohio State

As discussed on Monday, the slide Fields is likely to endure on Thursday night is completely irresponsible.  He should be the Jets’ pick here.

Fields performed beautifully at one of the highest levels out of anyone in this draft.  While Zach Wilson’s traits are just as tantalizing, Fields is just a better guarantee given his experience against good competition.  His dual-threat ability and accuracy is supreme to Wilson’s, and his arm isn’t much worse.  Additionally, Fields’ durability and size at the next level is of zero concern, whereas Wilson’s tall but slight frame – paired with his scrambling – can make one a tad worried.

Fields won’t be the pick here, and who knows where he will end up, but regardless, the Jets come out of this pick better off than they were in 2018 when they drafted Sam Darnold.  For all of Wilson’s cons, his potential is sky high.  Whether that translates or not is something New York probably shouldn’t be betting on, though.

No. 3, San Francisco 49ers: QB, Trey Lance, North Dakota State

Whether Fields is here or not on Thursday night, Lance should be San Francisco’s pick at No. 3.

Rumors have varied about the 49ers’ willingness to keep Jimmy Garoppolo as next year’s starter.  After the trade, it seemed like he’d be around at least another year – if not two.  But recent reports indicate that Garoppolo could be moved by the end of the draft, and that whoever this pick is for the 49ers will be the team’s starter in the fall.

If the intention is to keep Garoppolo, Lance is the perfect pick.  He’s the exception to the rule of starting your first-round quarterback in year one, as his sky-high potential will follow him learning how to succeed against upper-level talent and adapting to high passing volume schemes.  San Francisco can keep Garoppolo under center, still be remotely competitive and not put themselves in financial hell to get out of his contract while Lance develops.

Due to that, Lance is probably the right pick even if Fields is still here, because Fields would be wasted by being benched.  

Lance would bring back memories of the Robert Griffin III-Kyle Shanahan duo back in Washington.  Even though Shanahan tends to like lower ceiling, stable QBs, Lance is too good of a prospect to pass up here.  If the 49ers are patient, he’ll eventually be the upgrade they’re looking for over Garoppolo.

No. 4, Atlanta Falcons: TE, Kyle Pitts, Florida

Atlanta should trade down.  While Pitts is potentially a generational talent, they don’t truly need him in an offense that is already pretty loaded with weapons – and will have competent coaching for the first time in years.  Assuming Matt Ryan isn’t totally washed, the Falcons offense just needs to stay healthy in 2021 to be successful.

But if Atlanta can’t trade down to land an impact defender (literally any type – cornerback, edge, linebacker… it doesn’t matter), Pitts has to be the pick.  There’s no one worth reaching for with him on the board.  While the Falcons committed to Hayden Hurst last offseason at the tight end position, Pitts can easily assume the No. 3 wide receiver role ahead of Russell Gage, and create a titanic arsenal featuring Julio Jones (who should not be traded unless a first round pick and more is the offer) and Calvin Ridley.

Quarterback has been a popular pick for Atlanta here throughout the offseason, but the team just restructured Matt Ryan’s contract to make his dead cap unrecoverable after next season.  That would mean whichever quarterback Atlanta takes would be sitting not for just next season, but the year after as well.  The Falcons would be better off taking Pitts, making the best of Ryan for the next two years and resetting at the position heading into the 2023 Draft.

No. 5, Cincinnati Bengals: WR, DeVonta Smith, Alabama

Like Atlanta, the Bengals should probably consider trading down here.

As written about on Wednesday, Cincinnati is in better shape on its offensive line than given credit for.  Help is needed inside, but it’s unjustifiable to take either Alijah Vera-Tucker or Rashawn Slater, both of whom can play guard, over Penei Sewell here.

With the offensive line out of consideration, the focus moves to wide receiver.  While the Bengals are also sneakily taken care of there, they still lack a reliable No. 1 option, as Tee Higgins might be suited best as a No. 2 on the outside.

Smith is that primary guy. Ranked No. 1 on the Hub’s wide receiver board, the Heisman Trophy winner simply knows how to get open.  He’s a silky smooth route runner who uses his length to reach out and grab any ball.  His footwork gets all the hype, but Smith also uses his speed and long legs to simply run past defensive backs and never look back.  He also has the surest hands in the draft – a nice bonus considering how open he consistently is.

The biggest worry with Smith is a legit one: At 166 pounds and 6’1, he’s a pure bean-pole.

It’s odd to see that he weighed in so low.  Throughout the college football season, Smith looked thin and lengthy, but didn’t play like it.  He was able to stave off defenders and was never roughed up.  Smith plays bigger than his weight, but he’s also going to be dealing with bigger, more mature defenders who could bring a heftier pop in the NFL.

Smith’s weight is less of a concern than JaMarr Chase’s time off.  While Chase was fantastic at LSU, he did benefit from Joe Burrow and Justin Jefferson being on his team.  Those two just put up some of the best rookie seasons we’ve ever seen.  Is a third outbreak really coming from that same LSU roster?  That seems improbable.  Chase is not a bad prospect, but Smith’s ability to get open is just that special.

No. 6, Miami Dolphins: OT, Penei Sewell, Oregon

The Dolphins are ecstatic to land Sewell here, who caps off the building of their offensive line to protect Tua Tagovailoa.

Sewell was pegged as a generational talent out of high school, and while he’s still quite good, that label has worn its course.  He’s still the best offensive lineman in this class, and will be an immediate plug and play stalwart for the Dolphins for years to come.  

No. 7, Detroit Lions: WR, JaMarr Chase, LSU

Detroit could go a couple of different places here, including trading down, but its No. 1 priority this season should be to find out whether Jared Goff is a viable starting quarterback or not.

That answer is seemingly obvious, but the Lions new front office hails from Los Angeles, where Goff was originally drafted.  They might have their own plans for Goff, and believe in him more than the Rams had time for given their win-now roster.

Detroit had an active offseason at wide receiver – they lost Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. while replacing them with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman, which isn’t exactly the two-for-two swap you want.  But Chase can improve their receiving core instantly, and can likely emerge as a No. 1 option immediately with his speed and physicality on the line.  He’s strong and quite large for his 6’1 frame, and should become Goff’s most trusted weapon this season.

No. 8, Carolina Panthers: CB, Patrick Surtain II, Alabama

This might seem high, but the Panthers don’t have too many holes on the defensive side of the ball.  Surtain II is the best cornerback in the draft, and with AJ Bouye suspended for six games to begin the season, Carolina will need a sturdy replacement.  Surtain III also figures to be an upgrade over Donte Jackson at the other corner spot, making this pick a perfect one.

The Panthers should probably investigate trading down, as the other holes they need to fill are a little too rich for the No. 8 overall pick.  That said, Carolina goes as far as Sam Darnold takes them, and making sure its defense is spot free allows the Panthers brass to evaluate him as cleanly as possible.

No. 9, Denver Broncos: LB, Micah Parsons, Penn State

This pick for Denver changed significantly with its trade for Teddy Bridgewater on Wednesday.

With either Drew Lock or Bridgewater under center, the Broncos will need zero holes in their defense.  That group will be carrying them, and Parsons fills their last need.

Parsons is a freak.  He’s built like a middle linebacker but moves like a hybrid player, and reads the opposing quarterback like he’s actually the quarterback.  Parsons stuffs the run, can blitz and blow up passing plays and drop into coverage like a safety.  He’s incredibly versatile, and can do anything a coordinator asks.

Off the field concerns are valid – Parsons was implicated in hazing and bullying accusations while at Penn State.  Those are not qualities you want in a leader on the defensive side of the ball, but he’s joining a defense laden with veterans who will put him in his place if he acts up.

No. 10, Dallas Cowboys: OT, Rashawn Slater, Northwestern

Slater – for now – projects as a guard for the Cowboys, whose offensive line is stacked aside from some youth on the inside.  He represents the future at tackle once Tyron Smith retires, but the future Hall of Famer shows no signs of slowing down.

Slater is a massive human being who has fantastic feet, which qualifies him for both guard and tackle on the line.  Slater smashed in between Smith and Tyler Biadasz at center recreates the behemoth line Dallas possessed prior to Travis Frederick’s retirement, and addresses a major weakness from last year’s forgotten season.

No. 11, New York Giants: OT, Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC

The Giants wish they could land Slater, but take the next best lineman available in Vera-Tucker, who like Slater, can play either guard or tackle.

New York would use Vera-Tucker at guard in the short-term, similar to how Dallas would use Slater.  It drafted Andrew Thomas at tackle last year, and has Nate Solder on the other side.  Will Hernandez is another young player on the line who should man one guard spot, leaving a spot for Vera-Tucker, and wide open running lanes for Saquon Barkley.

No. 12, Philadelphia Eagles: WR, Rashod Bateman, Minnesota

Bateman will not go this high, and certainly won’t go ahead of Jaylen Waddle, but the Minnesota product is perhaps one of the most underrated players in this draft.  Ranked No. 3 on the Hub’s wide receiver board, Bateman might be the safest pass catcher in this class outside of Pitts.  He’s big, sturdy and can run routes incredibly efficiently for his size.

This pick might seem redundant after the Eagles took Jalen Reagor in the first round last year, but adding Bateman to the picture gives Philly an all-the-sudden loaded weapons core for second-year QB Jalen Hurts.

Bateman goes ahead of Waddle due to consistency.  We’ll get into it below, but while Waddle’s big play ability is intoxicating, it can also be unsustainable at times.  Bateman is more of a sure bet to make an impact right away, which is what Philadelphia needs.

No. 13, Los Angeles Chargers: OT, Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech

The Chargers join the massive run on offensive linemen by selecting Darrisaw, who’s another incredibly solid tackle at the top of this draft.  After nailing Justin Herbert’s selection last year, Los Angeles has to ensure they can protect their franchise quarterback.  Darrisaw takes care of one end of the line, with former Packer stalwart Bryan Bulaga manning the other.

No. 14, Minnesota Vikings: DE, Azeez Ojulari, Georgia

The Vikings miss out on the run on offensive lineman – a position they could sorely use – but fill a different hole with Ojulari.  The lengthy and bendy defensive end is the best in his admittingly weak class, but that doesn’t reduce his effectiveness.  Ojulari screams off the edge with explosive power, and is absolutely chilised in his upper body, making his fantastic athleticism a scary attribute.  Pairing him with Danielle Hunter should give Minnesota the fearsome pass rush they once had back for good.

No. 15, New England Patriots: LB, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame

New England has almost zero holes, and if they don’t trade up for a quarterback, then a trade down here depending on who is available might make the most sense.

As covered on Monday, the Patriots taking Wilson – even in the unlikely scenario that he falls to them (like now) – isn’t worth the gamble.  He’s too far from a sure thing, and it’s super easy to buy into a Cam Newton bounce-back season if that is the direction they decide to go (It seems like Garrappolo might be their path forward, though).  

Enter Owusu-Koramoah.  The Notre Dame linebacker is a bit tricky of an evaluation, because the success of players like him in the NFL has been limited (Isaiah Simmons’ rookie season was…. not great).  He’s also a little small for the position, which is why some teams see him truly as a safety.

He’s one of those do-it-all defenders, similar to the way Parsons is.  But Owusu-Koramoah is even more versatile, which also means he might be a little too in over his head.  If anyone is going to put him in the right spot, it’s New England, who could use one more linebacker alongside the return of Kyle Van Noy and Donta Hightower.

No. 16, Arizona Cardinals: CB, Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech

The concern over Farley’s medicals are legit – and even scary.

But Farley would be CB1 on the Hub’s board if not for them.  The Virginia Tech product is a freak – long arms, 6’2 with lockdown potential.  Farley would be the perfect replacement for Patrick Peterson, and pair nicely with Byron Murphy Jr.

Arizona doesn’t have a lot of other places to go with this pick.  Its roster is sneakily loaded, and just needs to execute next year, making the risk of Farley – a player who had back surgery after playing zero games in 2020 (opt-out), had back spasms the year prior and has dealt with a torn ACL – a justifiable yet terrifying one.  The talent is there.  Farley just needs to stay on the field, and is worth the first round gamble for a team that can afford it.

No. 17, Las Vegas Raiders: OT, Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State

Las Vegas’ total teardown of its talented offensive line this offseason remains puzzling, but beginning to restock here can put up a pretty convincing front.  Jenkins installed on one end leaves Kolton Miller and Richie Incognito on the other side, which is still a quality group.

Jenkins doesn’t have the ceiling that the linemen taken above him do, but he can play multiple positions and works incredibly hard.  His lacking athleticism might see him kicked inside at a point during his career, but with Gabe Jackson out in Vegas as well, Jenkins can play wherever the Raiders want him to.

No. 18, Miami Dolphins: DE, Jaelan Phillips, Miami

It might be puzzling to not see receiver be the pick here, but like last year, this class is loaded, and the position can wait for the Dolphins, who are in better already thanks to the addition of Will Fuller.  

Miami continues to build in the trenches with this local pick.  Phillips is incredibly talented, and will likely go higher than this on Thursday night, but medical and effort concerns seem to be hovering around his stock.  That said, Phillips’ length and athleticism is tantalizing, and he has the chance to be a completely unstoppable force in the NFL if he stays healthy and is kept on the right track.  Miami’s culture is top-notch, and they could use a presence like Phillips in its front seven.

No. 19, Washington Football Team: QB, Zach Wilson, BYU

If Washington wants Wilson on Thursday night, they’re going to have to come way up.  He will obviously not be here at this pick.

Should he be?  Wilson clocks in at QB4 on the Hub’s board, and as covered above and on Wednesday, just isn’t worth the risk for New England (Garoppolo is even a better option). No other teams after San Francisco need a quarterback, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina or Denver do something dumb considering the rumors that have been floating around – the same goes for Detroit, though that would be less dumb on its part.

If Washington is somehow able to grab Wilson – here or in a trade up – it makes sense.  That roster is too good to let Ryan Fitzpatrick govern, and Wilson has the potential to elevate it.  Lance or Fields also make sense for Washington, as they’d be better off handing the keys to Fitzpatrick than attaching themselves to Mac Jones long-term.

No. 20, Chicago Bears: OT, Alex Leatherwood, Alabama

This might seem high, but a lot of teams around the league need tackles, including Chicago.

Leatherwood is another safe pick whose ceiling is probably lower than others.  He’s SEC-battled tested, and has mammoth size.  Like Jenkins, that size – and therefore lack of athleticism – could kick him inside, but the Bears could very well go guard as well early in the draft.  Trading down would be in Chicago’s best interest here.

No. 21, Indianapolis Colts: DE, Kwity Paye, Michigan

It says a lot about this pass rushing class that Paye, a stubby end who’s a little short for his heavy weight, is the third best prospect at his position.

It’s just not a super talented group this year.  But that doesn’t mean Paye won’t be effective.  The Colts sorely need a presence on the edge, and Paye plays with a lot of power and has good feet given his size.  The concern is that he’s not any more athletic than the tackles he will face, but Indianapolis needs any pressure they can get right now.

No. 22, Tennessee Titans: WR, Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

Waddle will almost certainly not fall this far – his teammate DeVonta Smith might, though.

Tennessee gets incredible value here with Waddle, who seems destined to underwhelm given how much he’s been compared to Tyreek Hill in the pre-draft cycle.  While Waddle is bigger and longer than Hill, he’s just not as fast – which is ridiculous to say considering how fast Waddle is in general.  

Comparing receivers to Hill is unfair to Hill, and it will eventually become unfair to Waddle.  Waddle is certainly a big play machine, but he’s going to make those plays via route-running and tackle shedding.  Hill simply runs away from people.

That’s why Waddle is lower than perhaps expected on the Hub’s board.  He’s a bit of a boom-or-bust player.  He’s not fast enough to blow by defensive backs like Hill, or even like his former Alabama teammate and 2020 first-round pick Henry Ruggs III.

Waddle would excel, however, next to AJ Brown, who’d still be Tennessee’s No. 1 option.  Surrounding talent will be key to Waddle’s success, as he’s just not going to be reliable enough to be a lead receiver at the next level.

No. 23, New York Jets: CB, Greg Newsome II, Northwestern

Outside of quarterback and cornerback, the Jets roster isn’t in as bad of shape as one would expect entering Thursday night.

That’s why New York is plugging those holes in this first round mock.  With Fields at the top and Newsome II here, the Jets address their two biggest needs, and head into 2021 looking like a potentially competent team.

Newsome II has been a late riser the past couple months, and it’s understandable given his length and ball-hawking mentality.  Newsome II gets the edge over Jaycee Horn because of his ability to stay disciplined and still be aggressive.

No. 24, Pittsburgh Steelers: OT, Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame

This is a reach, but the run on tackles early left Pittsburgh in a bit of a bind, and it’s hard to argue for the Steelers taking any other position in the first round.  Another safe bet, Eichenberg should be a bookend for the Steelers for a long time to come.

No. 25, Jacksonville Jaguars: S, Trevon Moehrig, TCU

Like the Jets, Jacksonville is sneakily lacking with holes outside of quarterback.  Here with Moehrig, the Jaguars address their second-biggest need and enter 2021 in quite good standing.

No. 26, Cleveland Browns: LB, Zaven Collins, Tulsa

It seems likely that Collins will go well before this on Thursday night, but the Browns land an ultra-capable and sorely needed linebacker to their defense in him here.  The Tulsa product can do a variety of things on the field, though his large frame may scare teams off regarding how legit those abilities are.

No. 27, Baltimore Ravens: C, Landon Dickerson, Alabama

Dickerson is the safest unsafe prospect in this draft.

If he’s able to stay healthy, he’ll be a starting center in the NFL for 10-plus years.  But the Alabama cornerstone dealt with a major injury every year of his college career, and could just be broken, which is a massive shame.

He’s worth the risk, especially for a Baltimore team that desperately needs a center after the position was a constant source of struggle last year.  Dickerson has versatility, and can easily play guard, making him more attractive to other teams as well, but if the Ravens land him, expect him to be inserted at the helm of the line right away.

No. 28, New Orleans Saints: LB, Jamin Davis, Kentucky

The Saints scoop up the last linebacker remaining who’s first round worthy in Davis, and fill a hole on their defense.  Receiver is also certainly in play here, but Davis’ length and size forecasts him as a force in the New Orleans front seven.

No. 29, Green Bay Packers: C, Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma

Like New Orleans, Green Bay could certainly go receiver and make Aaron Rodgers happy, but having a line to protect him should be first on the priority list, especially considering that Rodgers had a MVP season last year with a weak set of weapons.

The Packers offensive line has fallen off substantially in the past year, and losing Corey Linsley to the Chargers in free agency opens up a hole at center.  Humphrey is arguably the best at his position in this draft, contingent on how one feels about Dickerson’s medicals.  This might be a reach, but this spot on the line makes the most sense for Green Bay at this point in the draft.

No. 30, Buffalo Bills: CB, Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State

The Bills have the second-best roster in football, so figuring out where to add to it is tough.  Samuel Jr. is the best cornerback available, and while Levi Wallace is by no means a bad player, Buffalo could seek to upgrade the spot adjacent to Tre’Davious White with this pick.

Samuel Jr. is his father reincarnated, though he has a lot to live up to.

No. 31, Baltimore Ravens: WR, Rondale Moore, Purdue

After addressing the line a couple picks prior, Baltimore can play around with this pick.

While the Ravens added some receivers to the mix in the offseason, neither of them are likely to move the needle.  Moore, despite his concerningly small size, is an absolute play-maker who would help bring Baltimore’s offense back to its 2019-level.

No. 32, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB, Najee Harris, Alabama

Tampa Bay has the best roster in the league and practically zero holes.

The idea of drafting a running back in the first round is usually idiotic, but the position is the one need the Buccaneers have.  In addition, Najee Harris is far and away the best running back in this class, and has the chance to be something quite special at the next level.  Crowd-sourcing the position with the likes of Leonard Fournette isn’t going to remain viable, and Harris gives the Bucs a reliable and versatile option.

How did these guys not go in the first round?

  • Jaycee Horn: Horn is just too undisciplined and aggressive as a cornerback coming into the league.  Multiple safer options exist in this class.
  • Mac Jones: Covered Monday.  You just don’t draft average talent in the first round, or even the second.
  • Travis Etienne: Far and away the second-best back in this class, but at the end of the day, is still a running back.
  • Gregory Rousseau Jr: A top high school recruit who never really lived up the billing and has a small sample size.  Incredible potential, but a lot needs to go right.
  • Joe Tyron: In a weak class, better ends just exist.
  • Jayson Oweh: Pressure without sacks is a legitimate skill in the NFL, but you can’t have that label coming out of college and be a first-round pick.  Sorry.
  • Carlos Basham Jr.: Like Tyron, better ends just exist.  He should be a solid contributor for somebody in year one, though.
  • Elijah Moore: Reminiscent of a Jalen Reagor from last year, just less fast, which makes him a tough evaluation.
  • Terrace Marshall Jr.: A really intriguing prospect, but issues medically and off-the-field contribute to his fall.  His length is among the best in this class, and is a silky smooth route-runner.
  • Levi Onwuzurike: It’s a bad defensive line class overall and Onwuzurike feels the burden of that.  He should still be a contributor for somebody in year one.
  • Kadarius Toney: Gadget players aren’t first-round picks.

Select big boards:


  1. Trevor Lawrence
  2. Justin Fields
  3. Trey Lance
  4. Zach Wilson
  5. Kyle Trask
  6. Mac Jones
  7. Davis Mills
  8. Ian Book
  9. Kellen Mond


  1. Najee Harris
  2. Travis Etienne
  3. Chuba Hubbard
  4. Javonte Williams
  5. Kenneth Gainwell
  6. Jermar Jefferson
  7. Kylin Hill


(Oh boy)

  1. DeVonta Smith
  2. JaMarr Chase
  3. Rashod Bateman
  4. Jaylen Waddle
  5. Rondale Moore
  6. Terrace Marshall Jr.
  7. Tylan Wallace
  8. Elijah Moore
  9. Amari Rodgers
  10. Amon-Ra St. Brown
  11. Seth Williams
  12. Kadarius Toney
  13. Josh Palmer
  14. Anthony Schwartz
  15. Dyami Brown
  16. Frank Darby
  17. Dax Milne
  18. Marlon Williams


  1. Kyle Pitts
  2. Tommy Tremble
  3. Pat Freiermuth
  4. Ben Mason


Positions fluctuate for most of the linemen in this class, so we’re ranking them as a whole based on their flexibility and pure talent.  Note: Mock draft may not match big board order.  Also: Oh boy.

  1. Penei Sewell
  2. Rashawn Slater
  3. Alijah Vera-Tucker
  4. Christian Darrisaw
  5. Teven Jenkins
  6. Alex Leatherwood
  7. Landen Dickerson
  8. Liam Eichenburg
  9. Creed Humphrey
  10. Samuel Cosmi
  11. Wyatt Davis
  12. Jalen Mayfield
  13. Walker Little
  14. Brady Christensen
  15. Trey Smith
  16. Stone Forsythe
  17. Dillion Radunz
  18. Spencer Brown
  19. Ben Cleveland
  20. Ben Meinerz


  1. Azeez Ojulari
  2. Jaelan Phillips
  3. Kwity Paye
  4. Gregory Rousseau Jr.
  5. Joe Tyron
  6. Carlos Basham Jr.
  7. Ronnie Perkins
  8. Jayson Oweh


  1. Christian Barmore
  2. Levi Onwuzurike
  3. Milton Williams
  4. Daviyon Nixon


  1. Micah Parsons
  2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
  3. Zaven Collins
  4. Jamin Davis
  5. Jabril Cox
  6. Pete Werner
  7. Dylan Moses
  8. Nick Bolton
  9. Baron Browning


  1. Patrick Surtain II
  2. Caleb Farley
  3. Greg Newsome II
  4. Asante Samuel Jr.
  5. Jaycee Horn
  6. Kelvin Joseph
  7. Tyson Campbell
  8. Eric Stokes
  9. Shaun Wade

Sorting Through The Scenarios In The NFL Draft’s Top 5

The number of contingencies in this NFL Draft seems higher than ever.

With the first two picks seemingly set in stone, chaos is likely to begin at No. 3 overall.  Below we go through all the different logical scenarios, starting off with what should happen, and then attempting to project what actually will.

What should happen:

No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars: QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

No. 2, New York Jets: QB, Justin Fields, Ohio State

No. 3, San Francisco 49ers: QB, Trey Lance, North Dakota State

No. 4 possibility #1: Washington trade up

No. 4 possibility #2: Atlanta keeps the pick

The first scenario is a sneak peek of Thursday’s mock draft.

For now, let’s ignore how we get to this spot and look at what could and should happen, but almost certainly won’t.

The quarterback market is poor at this point, making Atlanta’s leverage seemingly low.  But teams across the board are hot for Wilson.

Still, let’s look at this logically.  With Wilson’s stature as a boom-or-bust prospect that just doesn’t have the volume of and impressive enough tape against top competition, teams shouldn’t totally go all-in on him like the Jets are almost guaranteed to do.  There has to be some buffer.

Denver was one of the teams listed as a possible trade-up candidate for Wilson, but their trade for Teddy Bridgewater on Wednesday signifies that they want to give Drew Lock one more chance, and if he falls through, they then have a QB decent enough behind him to still be competitive.  

Bridgewater needs a perfect situation and surrounding cast to be successful, which was not what Carolina was last season.  Denver offers that, and perhaps is one of the NFL’s best rosters outside of the quarterback position.  

It’s clear that Denver wasn’t too enthralled with their options at No. 9 overall, which is fair if Fields isn’t there.  But if he is available, and it’s seeming increasingly likely he will be, then the Bridgewater trade immediately becomes totally unnecessary.  It’s understandable that the Broncos don’t want to take the risk, though.  They cannot afford to squander the roster they have.

Washington is perhaps the only other team that makes sense for Wilson in this wild sequence of events.  Like Denver, its roster is talented (Perhaps not quite as much, but close).  That difference makes Washington’s case even stronger.  Wilson is no guarantee, but if he booms, he’s the type of talent that can elevate the cast around him – on both sides of the ball.

Three teams that could be considered in need of a quarterback – New England, Chicago and New Orleans – bow out at this point.  Wilson isn’t worth the risk for them.  The Patriots can give Cam Newton a final chance, now that he hopefully won’t be battling COVID-19 and will have adequate weapons around him.  They also paid him as if that was their intention.  Chicago can’t be making any big-time moves at the quarterback position unless it’s a guaranteed hit like Lawrence or Fields, because it’ll cost its entire front office their jobs and put the Bears in another QB purgatory if it doesn’t work out.

The Saints don’t need much at QB.  Last season was proof of that.  They possess one of the best rosters in football, and simply need someone to come in, guide the ship and not screw up.

Wilson could more than do that, but he also could do substantially less as well, which leads to New Orleans wasting a perfect roster.  In this draft class, Mac Jones might actually be the perfect guy for the Saints.  But trading up from the spot he deserves to go (No. 28 overall) into the top ten of the draft to get him is not a smart play given his ceiling as a passer. Prior to Bridgewater’s trade to Denver, the former Saints QB making a homecoming made perfect sense.

Of course, Atlanta isn’t the only chance for teams to trade down.  Cincinnati isn’t taking a quarterback at No. 5 overall, and its case for trading down is better than some may think (More on that below).  The Dolphins probably aren’t moving at No. 6 overall, just because their subsequent trade-up to that spot after trading down with San Francisco makes it clear they have a target in mind.  The Lions aren’t bound to taking anyone in particular at No. 7 overall and could use extra picks to build out a depleted roster.  The same goes for Carolina, who could find themselves reaching depending on who is available at No. 8.

At the same time, in this scenario, Wilson is the only QB worth trading up for, so there could be a bidding war for Atlanta’s pick.  Conversely, Kyle Pitts is not a bad pick for the Falcons whatsoever.  But Atlanta should probably be trading down, as Pitts doesn’t fill an exact need.  An impact defender should be its target.

What likely will happen:

No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars: QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

No. 2, New York Jets: QB, Zach Wilson, BYU

No. 3, San Francisco 49ers: QB, Mac Jones, Alabama

No. 4 possibility #1: New England trade up

No. 4 possibility #2: Washington trade up

No. 4 possibility #3: Chicago trade up

No. 4 possibility #4: New Orleans trade up

No. 4 possibility #5: Atlanta keeps the pick

Fields’ availability changes things for everyone.  His certainty as an above-average quarterback makes too much sense for New Orleans, who could trade up, bring him in, start him immediately and perhaps improve from what was essentially Drew Brees’ corpse last year, while certainly upgrading from what either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will be this season.  Washington could get a quarterback who can elevate their good-but-not-great roster immediately.  

The two most interesting teams in this scenario are the Patriots and Bears.  Chicago’s front office and coaching staff might be out the door no matter what after this season, so going all-in on one last quest to save their jobs by trading up for Fields may not seem that insane.  At the same time, trading up for two quarterbacks that busted in the top ten of the draft within four drafts worth of time probably has general manager Ryan Pace never working in football again.

Chicago already publicly committed to Andy Dalton as their starter this season, which makes things tricky.  Fields isn’t someone who’s worth benching – Chicago would be better off trading up for an instant contributor like him instead or remaining where they are with Dalton and rebooting next offseason.  

New England is also faced with an interesting dilemma in this scenario.  It’s not hard to buy into a Newton bounce-back year in 2021-22, but the former Panthers star will be 33 by the time the season begins.  Regardless of how he plays, it’s unlikely he’s the long-term answer for the Patriots.  At the same time, benching Fields doesn’t make sense to do, and he could play early in the year if Newton is truly washed.

As mentioned above, Atlanta’s preference should be to trade out, but taking Pitts is not a bad situation whatsoever if the offers don’t suit their fancy.  If they don’t move out, teams shouldn’t have to wait long to find another partner.  The right one could be sitting at the next pick.

What could happen: Pitts at 4, Cincinnati trade out

No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars: QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

No. 2, New York Jets: QB, Zach Wilson, BYU

No. 3, San Francisco 49ers: QB, Mac Jones, Alabama

No. 4: Atlanta Falcons: TE, Kyle Pitts, Florida

No. 5 possibility #1: New England trade up

No. 5 possibility #2: Washington trade up

No. 5 possibility #3: Chicago trade up

No. 5 possibility #4: New Orleans trade up

No. 5 possibility #5: Cincinnati keeps the pick

This might seem surprising, but the case for the Bengals to move out of No. 5 overall is better than you may think.

First of all: if Pitts is here, it’s a no-brainer pick for Cincinnati.  While it’s unfair to peg Pitts as strictly a tight end, the Bengals could really use an upgrade at that position and are slightly less lacking at wide receiver.  

That leads into the case for Cincy trading down.  As we begin to spoil Thursday’s mock draft, while the Bengals could use a for-sure No. 1 receiver, no one at No. 6 overall is incredibly appealing (DeVonta Smith will clock in at WR1 on the board, but his weight is a serious, serious concern) and Cincinnati has good weapons already.  In addition, if quarterback Joe Burrow is 100 percent healthy and recovered from his knee injury, he should be able to elevate the talent around him.

Now, Burrow can’t elevate the offensive line in front of him, given that 1) That’s a hard thing to do in general and 2) Given that he’s not a mobile quarterback.  But the Bengals should be in better shape up front this year than they were last.  Jonah Williams will be back and fully healthy, and Riley Reiff was given a sizable one-year contract to man the other tackle spot.  Penei Sewell isn’t someone you’re sitting on the bench for a year.

Cincinnati needs help more so on the inside of its offensive line.  Sewell could play guard, but that seems like a waste of his talent.  Why not trade out, pick up an impact defender or interior lineman and get extra future picks when QB-hungry teams are salivating?

If Cincinnati trades down, which is obviously unlikely, it triggers the same action that would occur if Atlanta trades out of No. 4 overall: New England, Washington, New Orleans and Chicago get on the phone and start bidding for Fields or whichever quarterback they prefer.

Further down the line, more trade-down candidates exist.  Depending on which players are available, Detroit could make some sense as a partner if New England or Washington wants to move up.  At the same time, figuring out whether Jared Goff is the guy or not is probably priority No. 1 for the Lions, and selecting a receiver with that pick helps them do that.  Carolina is in a spot where they will probably be reaching at No. 8 overall – they could move down and still land an impact cornerback, linebacker, guard or defensive tackle.  

With quarterback seemingly out of the cards, Denver becomes an intriguing trade-down candidate at No. 9 overall.  Its loaded roster doesn’t have many holes, and Micah Parsons – who’d be a perfect fit in their defense and fills their only real gap in talent – seems likely to slide a bit given (concerning) off-the-field issues.

After that, teams seem likely to have QBs slide to them, or they will run out of trade partners.  The Giants should make their pick.  Philadelphia is almost certainly making theirs, though Thursday’s mock has them reaching for a wide receiver that it could likely trade down to select.  The Chargers and Vikings should make their picks, and by then we reach New England – who’s one of the primary trade-up candidates, not down.

Scouting the 2021 NFL Draft Quarterback Class

To prepare for what is shaping up to be a historic Thursday night, here is a look at the Hub’s top six quarterback prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft – including the five expected to go in the first round – and an extra one who should. 

QB1: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Top 5 pick)

Lawrence’s only weakness is something he has no control over – yet.

Expectations are historically high for the presumptive No. 1 overall pick.  He has no way of proving he can hit them until September rolls along.

History is on his side.  No quarterback with the generational label attached to his name has failed.  The list is John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Lawrence.  That’s it.

He hasn’t gotten here by accident.  Pegged with the sacred term in high school, Lawrence only met expectations in college.  With a cannon for an arm and accuracy that seems impossibly good, the Clemson junior consistently won with a good roster around him – but not one up to the par of other QBs in this draft (Most notably, Justin Fields and Mac Jones).  His height and length gives him incredible advantages in ball placement and throwing on the run, while his slender frame may be slightly concerning.  

That said, Lawrence did an okay job keeping himself healthy when escaping the pocket in college, and should be able to use his running ability to an extent at the next level.

The expectations are reachable for Lawrence.  He met them in college with ease.  While Jacksonville was the worst team in football last season, they’re in better shape than at least two other teams in the league.  The Jaguars are functional, and whether Urban Meyer is the right man for Jacksonville’s head gig or not, he’s certainly a good enough coach.

QB2: Justin Fields, Ohio State (Top 5 pick)

This should not be up for debate.

The public torching of Fields the past couple of months has no basis.  Sure, the former Ohio State star may not be as good as Lawrence, or may not have the ceiling that other quarterbacks in this class do, but in a draft that has a sure bet atop it, Fields isn’t much far behind.

Let’s start with the negatives, perceived and real.  Much has been written about Fields’ ability to scan beyond his first read, rather than not advance past it.  The whole idea was lunacy in the first place, but even if there was truth to it, the reason for it would be rooted in a positive attribute: Fields can make almost any throw, and his accuracy is perhaps his biggest strength.

Fields has tended to make poor decisions throwing the ball, which could be the origin of the first-read bias.  He can get flustered in the pocket and sling it, ignoring his other options.  But when his situation is clean, Fields takes his time to read the field.

That’s about it when it comes to Fields’ downsides.  His size when running should keep him healthy, but there’s always concern about quarterbacks built like him breaking down (Similar to Cam Newton, who’s built very much like Fields).  

His dual-threat ability is scary.  Fields can’t sling it like others in this class, but his zip on short-to-intermediate throws makes up for it.  A consistent downside of NFL quarterbacks is their inability to make tough throws across the middle of the field or in tight coverage.  While he can’t get it deep downfield, Fields can make those tough passes, and if not, defenses then get to deal with a 6’3 tank barreling toward them.

If Fields fails, it’ll likely be due to an inability to reduce turnovers and/or because of poor offensive line play.  But given his accuracy and big-game readiness, he should be the No. 2 overall pick on Thursday night, and if he’s not, whoever gets him will be getting a steal.

QB3: Trey Lance, North Dakota State (Early first-round pick)

Lance is the most complicated evaluation in this draft.

On one end, he’s a lights-out prospect who, despite a thin frame, throws the ball with strength and accuracy, doesn’t make mistakes and can make any throw on the run.  He is lightning quick and brings a true dual-threat presence to the table, where a team can totally restructure their offense around him to incorporate college-like schemes and play designs Lamar Jackson-style.

On the other end, Lance is a varsity star playing against the sophomores.  After the freak talent somehow only ended up at FCS school North Dakota State, he beat up on lesser talent and took advantage of a loaded roster and beautiful play-calling.  He only had one full season of being a starting quarterback and has 17 career starts.  In those starts, the most passes he ever threw was 31.  The second-most was 30, and the third-most was 23.

In many ways negative and positive, it’s almost like Lance was playing a different game than football.  His conquering of opponents was that dominant.  But his numbers and team’s style of play makes him look like he was incredibly replaceable – almost like he wasn’t even serving the role of a QB.

Because of all this, Lance probably needs a year or two before starting.  Typically, players that aren’t ready in their first year aren’t worthy of first-round selections.  That still holds true for the most part, but Lance is an exception given his position and ceiling.  It’s not his fault he had no season in 2020 to better himself and improve his stock.  If Lance hits his ceiling, we might be looking at a type of quarterback the league has simply never seen before.

QB4: Zach Wilson, BYU (Early first-round pick)

The hype makes sense.

Wilson’s rise is reminiscent of Jordan Love last year.  Teams are terrified of missing out on someone like Patrick Mahomes, who can make something out of nothing seemingly every play while maintaining their presence as a pocket passer.    

Wilson fits that bill.  He has a cannon for an arm, which can get the best of him at times.  His accuracy tends to be better when he throws long, as that bazooka misaims more times than you’d like it to in the short and intermediate areas of the field.  He’s not a runner but is mobile, and is perhaps at his best when he can keep the defense guessing with what he is going to do with the ball.  

Like Lance, the biggest question mark with Wilson is his sample size and competition.  Both are one-year wonders who flourished against lower-level teams.   Wilson, gratefully, was at least tasked with more in his offense, and wasn’t being used in almost a complementary fashion at BYU.  They let him sling it, and he did that pretty well.

The biggest question with Wilson is whether his theatrics are going to work or not.  From a pure football standpoint, Wilson is almost flawless.  His ability to throw the ball deep reliably should be coveted, as so many QBs in the league struggle with it.  Aside from that arm occassionally getting the best of him, football ability isn’t what plagues Wilson.  It’s things that are out of his control – the competiton he faced.  

It’s a nervous-wracking bet for whoever takes Wilson.  Weapons around him won’t appease.  There’s not much a coaching staff is going to do help him. A team will know close to Day-1 whether he’s going to be it or not.  

QB5: Kyle Trask, Florida (Late first-round pick)

This will likely be the biggest surprise on the board.

The evalution of Trask is perhaps colored by what Florida was before his intregration as a starter.  The Gators’ struggles at quarterback over the years – most notably highlighed by the ineffectiveness of Feleipe Franks – led to offense that had incredible trouble moving the ball.

Trask came in and lit it up.  Florida was a completely different team with him under center.  The ball moved forward, and went deep downfield.  Trask picked apart defenses left and right.  

The ability to move the ball downfield is what seperates Trask from Mac Jones.  Trask was never and isn’t afraid to make the tough throws.  Jones let his surrouding cast do the work, and had infinite help.  Trask had good weapons as well, and that will likely be a key to potential success in the NFL, but Jones’ projection as a game-manager sees him slide past Trask on this big board.

Trask may not be much more than that, but with him at the helm you can at least feel better about the ball moving downfield.  Jones will need a perfect arsenal of weapons and then some.

QB6: Mac Jones, Alabama (2nd round pick)

You don’t draft players for their ability to reach average performance.

You draft players who you think could be great, or at least good, especially in the first round.

Jones doesn’t project as either.  He has an average arm that is limited to shorter throws.  He was in a perfect scheme with perfect weapons, which made the tough throws easy.  Sure, his accuracy is great, but every QB’s should be when asked to make throws Jones did with play-makers like that on-hand.

The most common problem in the NFL is teams having quarterbacks who are good and not great – those who need perfect situations and scenarios to be successful.  Jones is one of those players, and doesn’t have the upside to grow out of it either.

Additionally, like other QBs in this draft, his sample size is small, and was helped out significantly by a roster that will have at least three or four other players selected in the first round.

The talent around Jones was better than Jones himself.  Somehow, that notion has been reversed lately.  If a team is looking for competnecy, then Jones is their guy.  But that team better know what it’s doing elsewhere on the field, and then will likely have to say some prayers.

Other ranked QBs in this class:

QB7: Davis Mills, Stanford

QB8: Ian Book, Notre Dame

QB9: Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Super Bowl 55 Preview

Tyreek Hill is an end-all.

He was in Week 12.  Kansas City’s 27-24 win over Tampa Bay was a game where the score didn’t tell the story at all.  The Chiefs’ blazing-fast wide receiver cooked Carlton Davis and the Buccaneers’ secondary.  Kansas City led 17-0 after the first quarter, and Hill had 200 yards by that point.  Despite Tampa Bay’s late rally, the Chiefs and Hill gave the Bucs no chance from the very beginning. Hill started and ended the game in an instant.

Tampa Bay gets a second crack at containing Hill on Sunday in Super Bowl 55.  Stopping him is not a possibility.  It just doesn’t happen.  You can only hope to contain him, make him work and make things harder on him.  Once you do that, you just say your prayers from that point on.

The biggest reason for Hill’s show-stopping performance in Week 12 was his ability to score, not necessarily his ability to get open and run.  As mentioned, you’re just not stopping that aspect of his game.

What Tampa Bay can stop though is Hill’s ability to break free and score.  Keeping a safety high and their fastest cornerback on Hill is the best allocation of resources that Bucs’ defensive coordinator Todd Bowles can deploy against him.  As silly as it sounds, letting Patrick Mahomes or literally anyone else on Kansas City’s offense beat them is the best way to go about business for Tampa Bay on Sunday.  A re-creation of Week 12 puts the game away almost immediately.

The thought of letting someone like Travis Kelce not be a priority is scary, but Devin White and the Bucs’ linebacker bunch is extremely skilled in coverage.  White should be matched up man-to-man with Kelce, and that battle is going to be more contested than we may think.  White is elite and can have help from a second safety or linebacker if needed.

Negating the presence of Kelce puts a lot of pressure on Hill to perform like he did in Week 12.  Of course, that is entirely possible – Hill’s inevitability and pure dominance are capable of taking over any defense in any game.  But it’d be quite embarrassing for Tampa Bay to go out like that, and essentially get shredded by the same player twice on the premise of them just not being able to stop him.

Letting Mahomes and others beat you sounds like a recipe for disaster.  But the Bucs have ways of controlling what he and the Chiefs do.  Kansas City is down both starting tackles for this Super Bowl after Eric Fisher tore his Achilles in the AFC Championship Game.  Being weak on the ends is not ideal against Tampa Bay’s pass rush, which is ferocious inside and out.  Pressuring and getting to Mahomes – who has no shortage of in-game ding-ups and trips to the medical tent in his career – is key for the Bucs, not only in hopes of potentially knicking Mahomes up (who was bothered by a toe injury in addition to the head/neck injury suffered against the Browns) but in order to force the quickest throws possible.

Those balls might be going to the likes of Mecole Hardman if the Bucs execute defensively, who is still ridiculously fast like Hill.  But the former Georgia wide receiver has been best used in gimmick, one-trick pony type plays rather than in a featured role throughout his short career thus far.  If the Bucs clamp Hill and Kelce and get pressure on Mahomes, it’s on Hardman to step up and have a Hill-like game off of dump-offs and quick throws.  That seems like a big ask.

Pressure is key for Tampa Bay on Sunday.  The same argument can be made for the Chiefs.

Kansas City has some balancing to do on the defensive end in this game.  On one hand, the age-old philosophy that beats Tom Brady is getting pressure on him, specifically with four or fewer defensive linemen.  The Chiefs can bring more, but they then risk Brady picking them apart effortlessly.  It’s an older Brady though, who may not pick apart a defense like he used to.  Bringing five might not be the death sentence it has been in the past.

The more concerning aspect of bringing pressure is that it opens up the run for the Bucs.  Tampa Bay’s rushing attack isn’t something to necessarily be afraid of, but it can be potent when firing on all cylinders.

The best way – conventionally – to beat the Chiefs is to play defense with your offense.  That doesn’t mean scoring as much as they do, but running the ball and eating as much clock as possible to limit their scoring chances.  Even with their matchup advantages, the Chiefs are still a handful for Tampa Bay’s defense.  The Bucs’ offense has to do its part in helping out the other side.  Running the ball does that most effectively.

But all of this strategy is complacent with the Bucs’ offense actually showing up.  That’s been a bit of a struggle for them throughout the season.  Blame it on the installation of a new quarterback and new system all you want, but these things should have been figured out by the time Tampa Bay’s first playoff game against Washington took place.  In that contest, the Bucs’ offense stalled, and Washington legitimately had a chance to win at the end.  The next week, Tampa Bay redeemed itself – and did so again against Green Bay.  But the inconsistency is concerning, and an offense can’t just not show up against Kansas City.  

Hill’s Week 12 performance still looms extremely large.  What is so different this time around for the Bucs?  Why would Hill not go off again?  Is Davis just permanently moved off of him?

A lockdown of Kelce does not win this game for Tampa Bay.  Hill needs to kept in check, and the pressure has to be on Mahomes.  Both things on top of the objective of Kelce has to happen for the Bucs Sunday.

In addition, their offense has to show up.  That could be the toughest bet of them all.  

Hill is inevitable.  Tampa Bay’s scheming on Hill Week 12 wasn’t the outcome of bad coaching or stupidity.  They were simply out-executed and outran.  

It’s hard to expect things to be much different Sunday, even with a safety looming over the top.  Hill and the Chiefs might just have Tampa Bay’s number.  If that holds true, Brady has a lot of work to do.  It might be the Super Bowl – where the GOAT typically shows up – but there’s a chance we leave Sunday realizing it just wasn’t the Bucs’ year – yet.

Prediction: Chiefs-34 Bucanneers-23

The Rams And The Lost Art Of “Going For It”

It’s rare when NFL teams admit defeat.

Front offices usually hold onto players they were wrong about too long.  They’re unwilling to concede to the owner or the fans they that messed up – perhaps big time.  They know it can cost them their job.  They know it will at least put them on thin ice.

The Los Angeles Rams didn’t necessarily hold onto quarterback Jared Goff too long.  Sure, the warning signs of his limited ceiling were there during the 2019-20 season, but the team’s overall regression was in full force.  Running back Todd Gurley – arguably the focal point of the Rams system – fell off a cliff.  Sean McVay seemed rattled as a play-caller after Bill Belichick pulled down his pants in Super Bowl 53.  Last year was the classic Super Bowl hangover season for the Rams.  At that point in time, Goff’s performance was okay.

This season changed things.  After a good start, Goff regressed once again.  The Rams were good enough to make up for his deficiencies, but ultimately the former No. 1 overall pick was the cog holding LA back from being great, not just good.

In response – in a move that’s so rarely made by front offices across sports – the Rams not only eliminated their problem but went all in to solve it.  

The acquisition of Matthew Stafford from the Lions in exchange for Goff, two first-round picks and a third-round pick elevates the Rams from that dreaded “good” description to the desired “great.”  No longer does Los Angeles have a quarterback who’s scared to throw the ball deep, will miss wide receivers and turn the ball over.  They have a gunslinger who – with good coaching and good weapons – which the Rams have – can perform at a level that breaches the NFL’s best.  Stafford is the quarterback we’ve lusted to see McVay have, and now he has him.

The price was steep – perhaps ridiculously so.  But it’s likely that it was LA’s fault it was so high – Detroit’s swallowing of Goff’s contract and shakiness on the field drove Stafford’s price up.  If the Lions moved Stafford elsewhere, perhaps their return would have been much lower.

The picks are stunning, especially considering that the two firsts were practically the only ones Los Angeles had left.  But the Rams go from a team that was middling and a QB away to a Super Bowl contender now.  That tradeoff – and likely upgrade – is almost invaluable.  If things don’t work out now, there’s almost nothing left to try.

The Rams’ side of the Stafford deal sets precedent for Houston and Deshaun Watson.  Have a QB that is as good or worse than Goff?  Great, that will be four first-round picks and other stuff for Watson, please and thank you.

Sure, not every QB has the contract Goff does, but not every QB can – even with significant coaching and weapons on top of an elite defense – get to the Super Bowl.

The point is that there’s worse than Goff on the market.  The teams in that situation should and will unequivocally be in on Watson, but to land him they will have to give up literally everything.  Those teams are as follows:

  • Carolina
  • San Francisco
  • Washington
  • New York Giants
  • New England
  • Pittsburgh (if Ben Roethlisberger returns)
  • Minnesota
  • Detroit (hold this thought)
  • New Orleans (if Drew Brees returns)
  • Atlanta
  • Denver
  • Indianapolis
  • Las Vegas 

The seven teams that shouldn’t be pursuing Watson in addition to Chicago, Dallas and Philidelphia are left out of this exercise as well.  

The Eagles are left out due to the fact that it’d cost them at least double on the cap to go get Watson, thanks to Carson Wentz’s trade kicker or his cap hit if he were to serve as Watson’s backup.

If the teams above want Watson, their current quarterback and double what the Lions got in picks for Stafford will likely be the starting point for conversations with Houston.  For the teams not listed, the return is probably similar to Stafford or less, depending on who the other quarterback is in the deal (For example, Arizona including Kyler Murray in a Watson deal is worth more than Miami throwing in Tua Tagovailoa).  Watson nets fewer picks than Stafford if a team like Cincinnati decides to move Joe Burrow for him (which is obviously unlikely, but probably needs to be a conversation for both).

The bottom line is this: if you’re one of the teams listed above, the Stafford trade was a kick in the balls in your attempt to make Watson your starting QB.  If Stafford nets what he did, then Watson brings back what could amount to the largest trade package in NFL history.  There’s a good chance he’s worth it, but that is some risky business.

A couple last notes on the potential Watson suitors above.  1) How funny would it be if Detroit leveraged Goff and the picks they received for Stafford on top of likely two more firsts and some other stuff to land Watson?  Detroit might be a sneaky suitor here if they want to be.  With their extra capital, they’re giving up much less than every team would in a Watson.  They’re working with a surplus.  2) New Orleans and Pittsburgh fall right into the Dallas/Chicago conversation if their respective QBs retire.  The Steelers absent Big Ben don’t have a QB nor pick that lands a QB that they can offer back to the Texans for Watson.  Houston should not be interested in either Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston to lead a reboot at the position post Watson in a theoretical deal with New Orleans.  And if either Brees or Roethlisberger are flipped for Watson, both Pittsburgh and New Orleans would be giving up hauls with unimaginable amounts of draft capital thanks to both players’ age and lack of production.

Detroit’s side of this trade is conflicting.  On one end, the haul they reigned in for Stafford was stunning – two firsts and a third for a quarterback that’s not elite and needs significant help is great work.  The picks allow them to be more aggressive in trying to move up for a quarterback in this year’s draft or next’s if they want to.  It can also enable them to pursue Watson if they choose.  Or – and this is the most likely outcome – allows Detroit to draft more good players, unlike they’ve done in the past.

But the Goff side of things is puzzling.  The picks are hard to turn down, but Goff’s contract is one of those that is not easily navigable.  Detroit can’t get out of it for free for two seasons.  After next year, it’s a $15 million dead cap hit to release him.  

The Lions are a teardown.  Evaluating Goff for next season makes sense, just to make sure he’s not salvageable.  But beyond that it’s a tough sell, assuming he’s not the guy for Detroit.  At that point, the Lions need to find their future signal-caller instead of treading water with Goff.  That’s tough though with Goff’s contract situation – moving on is not easy or cheap.

Detroit attaches themselves to Goff with this deal for a little longer than we’d like them to.  At the same time, evaluating Goff next season then cutting him for $15 million wouldn’t exactly hurt the Lions.  If they’re in the market for a quarterback next offseason, they’re not likely to be competitive or wanting to maintain cap room – meaning that Goff’s dead cap isn’t something they should qualm about accepting if it’s just a one-year payment.

It’s more about what else could have been out there for the Lions.  Again, the Rams’ picks were tough to turn down.  But why was Goff the QB Detroit had to receive back in the deal?  Was Denver not willing to move Drew Lock?  Was Jacob Eason in Indianapolis not appealing?  Even Taylor Heinicke from Washington?  Neither of those QBs might be great, but they’re at least young and cheap, and make more sense than Goff does for the Lions.

Regardless, this is about the picks for Detroit.  And why wouldn’t it be?  Two firsts and a third is an almost undeniable offer and certainly makes up for the presence of Goff, whether we like it or not.

Game Notes From The AFC + NFC Championship

Here are some thoughts on the NFC and AFC Championship Games along with a look at the market for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Buccaneers-31 Packers-26

  • The effect of turnovers on a single game are talked about ad nauseam.  But no contest greater magnified their importance than Sunday’s NFC Championship Game.
  • From the start, Green Bay was overmatched.  Tampa Bay was a team of sputtering yet scary offense all season that at its worst featured a fearsome defense.  On one side of the ball, teams knew what they were getting with the Buccaneers throughout the year.
  • The Packers struggled against Tampa Bay’s defense.  Its offense had no chance against Tampa Bay’s front, resulting in discombobulation. The Bucs and Tom Brady were having a good day, cooking Green Bay’s defense, thanks to beautiful balls from Brady to a host of receivers (in addition to a terrible blown coverage right before halftime which resulted Scotty Miller’s touchdown catch).  The Packers offense was left with no room for error, which it certainly encountered and resulted in them being down 21-10 at the half.
  • The break didn’t bring good fortune right away.  Desperately needing a score, Green Bay fumbled three plays into its first drive of the second half.  The Bucs scored immediately after, seemingly putting the game away by virtue of a three possession lead.
  • But Tampa Bay kicked off its own turnover party after Green Bay’s miscues allowed them to build the lead.  Brady threw three picks – all of which had some of his fault embedded in them.  The first was a deep shot to Mike Evans that was lofted a bit too high, allowing Packers safety Adrian Amos to fly over and intercept the pass on what was truly a great play by the former Bear.   The second was a high ball intended for Evans, who probably could have caught it given that his fingers made contact, but Brady’s placement was a little too high even for the 6-foot-5-inch receiver to snag it.  
  • The third pick was a pure duck as Brady attempted to escape pressure. Green Bay didn’t recoup points from that pick, and only went 1/3 with points off of each possession change.  Blame whatever occurred later in the game for the Packers’ loss if you want, but the inability to cash in on two golden opportunities looms large as well.
  • Green Bay had a chance to redeem itself for the missed chances.  Down eight with 2:05 left, the Packers opted to kick a field goal on the eight yard line on fourth down as opposed to going for it.  An egregious decision, Matt LaFleur essentially called the game away there.  
  • Skeptics will tell you that points is better than no points.  That’s fine, and sometimes true, but only to a certain extent.  If the Packers were able to stop Tampa Bay on the ensuing drive, they’d still need to a score a touchdown in order to take the lead – which is the same thing they would have attempted to do on 4th and goal while leaving more time on the clock for a last-second heave if they didn’t convert on the 4th down and forced Tampa Bay to a three-and-out.
  • A touchdown on 4th and goal likely would have led to a two-point conversion attempt, which if converted, obviously ties the game, but if not, allows a field goal to take the lead if the Packers defense made a stop after the change of possession.
  • Going for it just makes things easier.  It’s a move that has a higher ceiling when it comes to the objective of winning the game, while causing zero harm if not successful.  In addition, you’re backing up the Buccaneers offense deep in their own territory.  Their backs are against the wall, and while unlikely, the odds of a safety increase.
  • The Packers didn’t even play it safe by kicking.  They played it stupidly.  
  • You would have thought, after watching two teams go home from these playoffs as a result of the same dumb play-calling, that the Packers would have learned.  But they didn’t, and now Aaron Rodgers is mad.
  • Green Bay fans can be upset all they want about the pass interference call on Kevin King with 1:46 left that sealed the game for Tampa Bay, which, yes, was an outlier call given how the referees officiated the contest and, yes, was probably awarded partially due to a magnificent flopping job by rookie wide receiver Tyler Johnson who, yes, was not affected at all by King’s jersey grab.  But it’s in the rules – you can’t tug on someone’s jersey to defend them, and had the Packers just decided to go for it on 4th and goal, we likely wouldn’t be arguing about this at all.
  • Green Bay might have gotten screwed over (Hint: not really), but they could have avoided it.  Instead, they enter an offseason that might have more drama and turmoil than they could have ever imagined.

Chiefs-38 Bills-24 

  • The Chiefs being down two possessions is like any other team being down eight points.
  • Coming back from down eight is a harder task than doing the same against seven or fewer points thanks to the variability of the two-point conversion, but neither of those compare to thee challenge two possessions is for most teams.
  • Buffalo’s 9-0 lead felt insecure in the moment.  The immediate shock value of Kansas City’s sudden deficit was surmised by almost a comforting feeling: that this was the Chiefs, and that almost no lead on them ever matters.
  • The Bills’ lead was also not a byproduct of their own doing.  A long field goal gave them the first three points, while a horrible fumble by Mecole Hardman on a punt return set Buffalo up at the three yard line soon after, where the Bills scored immediately and missed the extra point.  It all happened fast – which typically isn’t the formula best suited to beat the Chiefs.
  • In an instant, Kansas City led.  Nine-to-zero Bills was soon 21-9 Chiefs, thanks to Tyreek Hill and Kansas City’s blazing offensive speed once again torching another defense.  As defensive backs chased around Hill and Hardman, Kelce sat wide open in the middle of the field and cleaned up as usual.  
  • You just don’t defend the Chiefs.  It’s a pick-your-poison offense that is likely going to beat you one way or the other.  Buffalo needed its offense to show up Sunday to have a chance, and instead Josh Allen turned in a performance that looked like it was off of his rookie tape.
  • Averaging just six yards per attempt, Allen completed just 28/48 passes.  He missed receivers, threw dangerous balls and made dumb decisions while scrambling.  His 88 yards rushing led the team by a wide margin, and Cole Beasley’s own 88 receiving was the most on the Bills as well in that respective category.  Kansas City’s defense surprisingly got immense pressure, which seemed to throw Allen off the scent just enough.  It was the worst game Allen has played since he made the leap forward, which dates back to before last season.
  • The Bills attempted to make a rally late, but became the latest team (Four of them in two weeks time!) to waive the white flag and get sent home by not going for it on 4th down or not attempting a two-point conversion.  Down 12 midway through the third quarter, Buffalo decided to kick on 4th and 3 on the Chiefs’ eight yard-line instead of attempting to gain three yards.  The good field goal was a purely lateral move – the Bills then watched Kansas City take a 31-15 lead on the ensuing drive, which had the possibility of being a 31-20 lead had the Bills been aggressive.  An 11 or even 12 (if they didn’t go for two – which would have been decently acceptable) point deficit only requires one two-point attempt, not two to tie or take the lead.  If the Bills were in the business of making things easier on themselves and not relying so heavily on one play must-haves, going for it early would have been the right move.
  • No matter what the Bills did on the end of that possession, them winning was still unlikely.  Kansas City – unsurprisingly – was the better team, and looked purely unstoppable almost the entire game.  If Allen had showed up, perhaps a duel would have ensued, but offense – most notably the type Buffalo doesn’t play (run-heavy, clock eating-schemes) – is what it takes to put the Chiefs away.  The Bills couldn’t do that, and there’s a good chance the last team standing in football aside from Kansas City won’t either.

On Matthew Stafford’s impending trade…

The Matthew Stafford market is much different than the one that exists for Deshaun Watson.

As written about last week, Watson is the type of player that almost every team in the league has to consider acquiring.  He’s an elite, top ten QB in the league, which is invaluable at the age of 25.

We’ve also seen the bare minimum of what he is capable of.  The Texans have wasted most of his young years so far, and the Clemson product has still shone and at times been an MVP candidate.  Imagine what he’s capable of literally anywhere else.

Stafford is not Watson.  His numbers and his ability (or lack thereof) to affect winning are indicative of that.  Detroit hasn’t treated Stafford much better than Houston has Watson over the course of his career, but the former No. 1 overall pick hasn’t came through like Watson has.  In four seasons as Houston’s quarterback, Watson has taken the Texans to the playoffs twice.  Stafford has done the same with the Lions just once more, and that’s with a six-year head start.

The bottom line: most of the teams in on Watson should be much different from those in on Stafford.

The Cardinals, for example, are not trading Kyler Murray for Stafford unless Detroit sends multiple attractive draft picks back in a deal (There’s almost no deal that makes that worth it for Arizona).  Arizona dealing Murray and some other stuff (hint: it wouldn’t be much else) for Watson, however, might make sense.

The teams that can use Stafford likely miss out on Watson.  But that doesn’t mean everyone can use Stafford.

The gunslinger needs foundation, coaching and weapons.  That’s been made clear after what we’ve seen in Detroit.  These need to be teams that have contending-level rosters and solid skill position players in place in order for Stafford to succeed.

Who are those teams?  Well, New Orleans has one of the best rosters in football whether Drew Brees retires or not.  If he has played his last down, the Saints would make perfect sense.  The same goes for Pittsburgh, whose quarterback (Like New Orleans) might have been the biggest thing holding them back this year.  The 49ers would make a ton of sense, as San Francisco is a year off from making the Super Bowl and has underrated offensive weapons.  Indianapolis was clearly attempting to go as far as they could this season with Phillip Rivers, though that team may not be good enough to elevate Stafford and might be better off going in a younger direction at QB.  Chicago could use anything they could get right now at QB, and there’s some sneaky talent on both sides of the ball there (On the sidelines and in the front office however, not so much!).  The Rams swapping out Jared Goff for Stafford would be mighty intriguing, and Denver throwing him into that loaded offense could light up the league.

But that’s about it for Stafford.  Every other team is better off going all in for Watson or staying put where they are.  It’s a limited market for the Lions, and in a low leverage situation, a potentially concerning, sell-low move awaits.