The following is a culmination of the Hub’s work on the 2021 NFL Draft.  Below is a What-Should-Happen Mock Draft of Thursday’s first round that features no trades, followed by a diagnosis of notable prospects who were left out of the first round and big boards of players at almost every position.

Here we go.

No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars: QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

Lawrence will have the chance to put the Jaguars legitimately on the map for the first time in a while, and he’s not walking into a tire-fire situation that most teams selecting No. 1 overall are.

The former Clemson star with have good weapons and smart coaching around him in Year 1.  Urban Meyer as a play-caller should make Jacksonville an at-least decent team next season, assuming he doesn’t lose the locker room as a rookie head coach who’s never led at the NFL level.

Lawrence is about as sure of a thing as one can get.  His only caveat is whether he can live up to it.

No. 2, New York Jets: QB, Justin Fields, Ohio State

As discussed on Monday, the slide Fields is likely to endure on Thursday night is completely irresponsible.  He should be the Jets’ pick here.

Fields performed beautifully at one of the highest levels out of anyone in this draft.  While Zach Wilson’s traits are just as tantalizing, Fields is just a better guarantee given his experience against good competition.  His dual-threat ability and accuracy is supreme to Wilson’s, and his arm isn’t much worse.  Additionally, Fields’ durability and size at the next level is of zero concern, whereas Wilson’s tall but slight frame – paired with his scrambling – can make one a tad worried.

Fields won’t be the pick here, and who knows where he will end up, but regardless, the Jets come out of this pick better off than they were in 2018 when they drafted Sam Darnold.  For all of Wilson’s cons, his potential is sky high.  Whether that translates or not is something New York probably shouldn’t be betting on, though.

No. 3, San Francisco 49ers: QB, Trey Lance, North Dakota State

Whether Fields is here or not on Thursday night, Lance should be San Francisco’s pick at No. 3.

Rumors have varied about the 49ers’ willingness to keep Jimmy Garoppolo as next year’s starter.  After the trade, it seemed like he’d be around at least another year – if not two.  But recent reports indicate that Garoppolo could be moved by the end of the draft, and that whoever this pick is for the 49ers will be the team’s starter in the fall.

If the intention is to keep Garoppolo, Lance is the perfect pick.  He’s the exception to the rule of starting your first-round quarterback in year one, as his sky-high potential will follow him learning how to succeed against upper-level talent and adapting to high passing volume schemes.  San Francisco can keep Garoppolo under center, still be remotely competitive and not put themselves in financial hell to get out of his contract while Lance develops.

Due to that, Lance is probably the right pick even if Fields is still here, because Fields would be wasted by being benched.  

Lance would bring back memories of the Robert Griffin III-Kyle Shanahan duo back in Washington.  Even though Shanahan tends to like lower ceiling, stable QBs, Lance is too good of a prospect to pass up here.  If the 49ers are patient, he’ll eventually be the upgrade they’re looking for over Garoppolo.

No. 4, Atlanta Falcons: TE, Kyle Pitts, Florida

Atlanta should trade down.  While Pitts is potentially a generational talent, they don’t truly need him in an offense that is already pretty loaded with weapons – and will have competent coaching for the first time in years.  Assuming Matt Ryan isn’t totally washed, the Falcons offense just needs to stay healthy in 2021 to be successful.

But if Atlanta can’t trade down to land an impact defender (literally any type – cornerback, edge, linebacker… it doesn’t matter), Pitts has to be the pick.  There’s no one worth reaching for with him on the board.  While the Falcons committed to Hayden Hurst last offseason at the tight end position, Pitts can easily assume the No. 3 wide receiver role ahead of Russell Gage, and create a titanic arsenal featuring Julio Jones (who should not be traded unless a first round pick and more is the offer) and Calvin Ridley.

Quarterback has been a popular pick for Atlanta here throughout the offseason, but the team just restructured Matt Ryan’s contract to make his dead cap unrecoverable after next season.  That would mean whichever quarterback Atlanta takes would be sitting not for just next season, but the year after as well.  The Falcons would be better off taking Pitts, making the best of Ryan for the next two years and resetting at the position heading into the 2023 Draft.

No. 5, Cincinnati Bengals: WR, DeVonta Smith, Alabama

Like Atlanta, the Bengals should probably consider trading down here.

As written about on Wednesday, Cincinnati is in better shape on its offensive line than given credit for.  Help is needed inside, but it’s unjustifiable to take either Alijah Vera-Tucker or Rashawn Slater, both of whom can play guard, over Penei Sewell here.

With the offensive line out of consideration, the focus moves to wide receiver.  While the Bengals are also sneakily taken care of there, they still lack a reliable No. 1 option, as Tee Higgins might be suited best as a No. 2 on the outside.

Smith is that primary guy. Ranked No. 1 on the Hub’s wide receiver board, the Heisman Trophy winner simply knows how to get open.  He’s a silky smooth route runner who uses his length to reach out and grab any ball.  His footwork gets all the hype, but Smith also uses his speed and long legs to simply run past defensive backs and never look back.  He also has the surest hands in the draft – a nice bonus considering how open he consistently is.

The biggest worry with Smith is a legit one: At 166 pounds and 6’1, he’s a pure bean-pole.

It’s odd to see that he weighed in so low.  Throughout the college football season, Smith looked thin and lengthy, but didn’t play like it.  He was able to stave off defenders and was never roughed up.  Smith plays bigger than his weight, but he’s also going to be dealing with bigger, more mature defenders who could bring a heftier pop in the NFL.

Smith’s weight is less of a concern than JaMarr Chase’s time off.  While Chase was fantastic at LSU, he did benefit from Joe Burrow and Justin Jefferson being on his team.  Those two just put up some of the best rookie seasons we’ve ever seen.  Is a third outbreak really coming from that same LSU roster?  That seems improbable.  Chase is not a bad prospect, but Smith’s ability to get open is just that special.

No. 6, Miami Dolphins: OT, Penei Sewell, Oregon

The Dolphins are ecstatic to land Sewell here, who caps off the building of their offensive line to protect Tua Tagovailoa.

Sewell was pegged as a generational talent out of high school, and while he’s still quite good, that label has worn its course.  He’s still the best offensive lineman in this class, and will be an immediate plug and play stalwart for the Dolphins for years to come.  

No. 7, Detroit Lions: WR, JaMarr Chase, LSU

Detroit could go a couple of different places here, including trading down, but its No. 1 priority this season should be to find out whether Jared Goff is a viable starting quarterback or not.

That answer is seemingly obvious, but the Lions new front office hails from Los Angeles, where Goff was originally drafted.  They might have their own plans for Goff, and believe in him more than the Rams had time for given their win-now roster.

Detroit had an active offseason at wide receiver – they lost Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. while replacing them with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman, which isn’t exactly the two-for-two swap you want.  But Chase can improve their receiving core instantly, and can likely emerge as a No. 1 option immediately with his speed and physicality on the line.  He’s strong and quite large for his 6’1 frame, and should become Goff’s most trusted weapon this season.

No. 8, Carolina Panthers: CB, Patrick Surtain II, Alabama

This might seem high, but the Panthers don’t have too many holes on the defensive side of the ball.  Surtain II is the best cornerback in the draft, and with AJ Bouye suspended for six games to begin the season, Carolina will need a sturdy replacement.  Surtain III also figures to be an upgrade over Donte Jackson at the other corner spot, making this pick a perfect one.

The Panthers should probably investigate trading down, as the other holes they need to fill are a little too rich for the No. 8 overall pick.  That said, Carolina goes as far as Sam Darnold takes them, and making sure its defense is spot free allows the Panthers brass to evaluate him as cleanly as possible.

No. 9, Denver Broncos: LB, Micah Parsons, Penn State

This pick for Denver changed significantly with its trade for Teddy Bridgewater on Wednesday.

With either Drew Lock or Bridgewater under center, the Broncos will need zero holes in their defense.  That group will be carrying them, and Parsons fills their last need.

Parsons is a freak.  He’s built like a middle linebacker but moves like a hybrid player, and reads the opposing quarterback like he’s actually the quarterback.  Parsons stuffs the run, can blitz and blow up passing plays and drop into coverage like a safety.  He’s incredibly versatile, and can do anything a coordinator asks.

Off the field concerns are valid – Parsons was implicated in hazing and bullying accusations while at Penn State.  Those are not qualities you want in a leader on the defensive side of the ball, but he’s joining a defense laden with veterans who will put him in his place if he acts up.

No. 10, Dallas Cowboys: OT, Rashawn Slater, Northwestern

Slater – for now – projects as a guard for the Cowboys, whose offensive line is stacked aside from some youth on the inside.  He represents the future at tackle once Tyron Smith retires, but the future Hall of Famer shows no signs of slowing down.

Slater is a massive human being who has fantastic feet, which qualifies him for both guard and tackle on the line.  Slater smashed in between Smith and Tyler Biadasz at center recreates the behemoth line Dallas possessed prior to Travis Frederick’s retirement, and addresses a major weakness from last year’s forgotten season.

No. 11, New York Giants: OT, Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC

The Giants wish they could land Slater, but take the next best lineman available in Vera-Tucker, who like Slater, can play either guard or tackle.

New York would use Vera-Tucker at guard in the short-term, similar to how Dallas would use Slater.  It drafted Andrew Thomas at tackle last year, and has Nate Solder on the other side.  Will Hernandez is another young player on the line who should man one guard spot, leaving a spot for Vera-Tucker, and wide open running lanes for Saquon Barkley.

No. 12, Philadelphia Eagles: WR, Rashod Bateman, Minnesota

Bateman will not go this high, and certainly won’t go ahead of Jaylen Waddle, but the Minnesota product is perhaps one of the most underrated players in this draft.  Ranked No. 3 on the Hub’s wide receiver board, Bateman might be the safest pass catcher in this class outside of Pitts.  He’s big, sturdy and can run routes incredibly efficiently for his size.

This pick might seem redundant after the Eagles took Jalen Reagor in the first round last year, but adding Bateman to the picture gives Philly an all-the-sudden loaded weapons core for second-year QB Jalen Hurts.

Bateman goes ahead of Waddle due to consistency.  We’ll get into it below, but while Waddle’s big play ability is intoxicating, it can also be unsustainable at times.  Bateman is more of a sure bet to make an impact right away, which is what Philadelphia needs.

No. 13, Los Angeles Chargers: OT, Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech

The Chargers join the massive run on offensive linemen by selecting Darrisaw, who’s another incredibly solid tackle at the top of this draft.  After nailing Justin Herbert’s selection last year, Los Angeles has to ensure they can protect their franchise quarterback.  Darrisaw takes care of one end of the line, with former Packer stalwart Bryan Bulaga manning the other.

No. 14, Minnesota Vikings: DE, Azeez Ojulari, Georgia

The Vikings miss out on the run on offensive lineman – a position they could sorely use – but fill a different hole with Ojulari.  The lengthy and bendy defensive end is the best in his admittingly weak class, but that doesn’t reduce his effectiveness.  Ojulari screams off the edge with explosive power, and is absolutely chilised in his upper body, making his fantastic athleticism a scary attribute.  Pairing him with Danielle Hunter should give Minnesota the fearsome pass rush they once had back for good.

No. 15, New England Patriots: LB, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame

New England has almost zero holes, and if they don’t trade up for a quarterback, then a trade down here depending on who is available might make the most sense.

As covered on Monday, the Patriots taking Wilson – even in the unlikely scenario that he falls to them (like now) – isn’t worth the gamble.  He’s too far from a sure thing, and it’s super easy to buy into a Cam Newton bounce-back season if that is the direction they decide to go (It seems like Garrappolo might be their path forward, though).  

Enter Owusu-Koramoah.  The Notre Dame linebacker is a bit tricky of an evaluation, because the success of players like him in the NFL has been limited (Isaiah Simmons’ rookie season was…. not great).  He’s also a little small for the position, which is why some teams see him truly as a safety.

He’s one of those do-it-all defenders, similar to the way Parsons is.  But Owusu-Koramoah is even more versatile, which also means he might be a little too in over his head.  If anyone is going to put him in the right spot, it’s New England, who could use one more linebacker alongside the return of Kyle Van Noy and Donta Hightower.

No. 16, Arizona Cardinals: CB, Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech

The concern over Farley’s medicals are legit – and even scary.

But Farley would be CB1 on the Hub’s board if not for them.  The Virginia Tech product is a freak – long arms, 6’2 with lockdown potential.  Farley would be the perfect replacement for Patrick Peterson, and pair nicely with Byron Murphy Jr.

Arizona doesn’t have a lot of other places to go with this pick.  Its roster is sneakily loaded, and just needs to execute next year, making the risk of Farley – a player who had back surgery after playing zero games in 2020 (opt-out), had back spasms the year prior and has dealt with a torn ACL – a justifiable yet terrifying one.  The talent is there.  Farley just needs to stay on the field, and is worth the first round gamble for a team that can afford it.

No. 17, Las Vegas Raiders: OT, Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State

Las Vegas’ total teardown of its talented offensive line this offseason remains puzzling, but beginning to restock here can put up a pretty convincing front.  Jenkins installed on one end leaves Kolton Miller and Richie Incognito on the other side, which is still a quality group.

Jenkins doesn’t have the ceiling that the linemen taken above him do, but he can play multiple positions and works incredibly hard.  His lacking athleticism might see him kicked inside at a point during his career, but with Gabe Jackson out in Vegas as well, Jenkins can play wherever the Raiders want him to.

No. 18, Miami Dolphins: DE, Jaelan Phillips, Miami

It might be puzzling to not see receiver be the pick here, but like last year, this class is loaded, and the position can wait for the Dolphins, who are in better already thanks to the addition of Will Fuller.  

Miami continues to build in the trenches with this local pick.  Phillips is incredibly talented, and will likely go higher than this on Thursday night, but medical and effort concerns seem to be hovering around his stock.  That said, Phillips’ length and athleticism is tantalizing, and he has the chance to be a completely unstoppable force in the NFL if he stays healthy and is kept on the right track.  Miami’s culture is top-notch, and they could use a presence like Phillips in its front seven.

No. 19, Washington Football Team: QB, Zach Wilson, BYU

If Washington wants Wilson on Thursday night, they’re going to have to come way up.  He will obviously not be here at this pick.

Should he be?  Wilson clocks in at QB4 on the Hub’s board, and as covered above and on Wednesday, just isn’t worth the risk for New England (Garoppolo is even a better option). No other teams after San Francisco need a quarterback, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina or Denver do something dumb considering the rumors that have been floating around – the same goes for Detroit, though that would be less dumb on its part.

If Washington is somehow able to grab Wilson – here or in a trade up – it makes sense.  That roster is too good to let Ryan Fitzpatrick govern, and Wilson has the potential to elevate it.  Lance or Fields also make sense for Washington, as they’d be better off handing the keys to Fitzpatrick than attaching themselves to Mac Jones long-term.

No. 20, Chicago Bears: OT, Alex Leatherwood, Alabama

This might seem high, but a lot of teams around the league need tackles, including Chicago.

Leatherwood is another safe pick whose ceiling is probably lower than others.  He’s SEC-battled tested, and has mammoth size.  Like Jenkins, that size – and therefore lack of athleticism – could kick him inside, but the Bears could very well go guard as well early in the draft.  Trading down would be in Chicago’s best interest here.

No. 21, Indianapolis Colts: DE, Kwity Paye, Michigan

It says a lot about this pass rushing class that Paye, a stubby end who’s a little short for his heavy weight, is the third best prospect at his position.

It’s just not a super talented group this year.  But that doesn’t mean Paye won’t be effective.  The Colts sorely need a presence on the edge, and Paye plays with a lot of power and has good feet given his size.  The concern is that he’s not any more athletic than the tackles he will face, but Indianapolis needs any pressure they can get right now.

No. 22, Tennessee Titans: WR, Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

Waddle will almost certainly not fall this far – his teammate DeVonta Smith might, though.

Tennessee gets incredible value here with Waddle, who seems destined to underwhelm given how much he’s been compared to Tyreek Hill in the pre-draft cycle.  While Waddle is bigger and longer than Hill, he’s just not as fast – which is ridiculous to say considering how fast Waddle is in general.  

Comparing receivers to Hill is unfair to Hill, and it will eventually become unfair to Waddle.  Waddle is certainly a big play machine, but he’s going to make those plays via route-running and tackle shedding.  Hill simply runs away from people.

That’s why Waddle is lower than perhaps expected on the Hub’s board.  He’s a bit of a boom-or-bust player.  He’s not fast enough to blow by defensive backs like Hill, or even like his former Alabama teammate and 2020 first-round pick Henry Ruggs III.

Waddle would excel, however, next to AJ Brown, who’d still be Tennessee’s No. 1 option.  Surrounding talent will be key to Waddle’s success, as he’s just not going to be reliable enough to be a lead receiver at the next level.

No. 23, New York Jets: CB, Greg Newsome II, Northwestern

Outside of quarterback and cornerback, the Jets roster isn’t in as bad of shape as one would expect entering Thursday night.

That’s why New York is plugging those holes in this first round mock.  With Fields at the top and Newsome II here, the Jets address their two biggest needs, and head into 2021 looking like a potentially competent team.

Newsome II has been a late riser the past couple months, and it’s understandable given his length and ball-hawking mentality.  Newsome II gets the edge over Jaycee Horn because of his ability to stay disciplined and still be aggressive.

No. 24, Pittsburgh Steelers: OT, Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame

This is a reach, but the run on tackles early left Pittsburgh in a bit of a bind, and it’s hard to argue for the Steelers taking any other position in the first round.  Another safe bet, Eichenberg should be a bookend for the Steelers for a long time to come.

No. 25, Jacksonville Jaguars: S, Trevon Moehrig, TCU

Like the Jets, Jacksonville is sneakily lacking with holes outside of quarterback.  Here with Moehrig, the Jaguars address their second-biggest need and enter 2021 in quite good standing.

No. 26, Cleveland Browns: LB, Zaven Collins, Tulsa

It seems likely that Collins will go well before this on Thursday night, but the Browns land an ultra-capable and sorely needed linebacker to their defense in him here.  The Tulsa product can do a variety of things on the field, though his large frame may scare teams off regarding how legit those abilities are.

No. 27, Baltimore Ravens: C, Landon Dickerson, Alabama

Dickerson is the safest unsafe prospect in this draft.

If he’s able to stay healthy, he’ll be a starting center in the NFL for 10-plus years.  But the Alabama cornerstone dealt with a major injury every year of his college career, and could just be broken, which is a massive shame.

He’s worth the risk, especially for a Baltimore team that desperately needs a center after the position was a constant source of struggle last year.  Dickerson has versatility, and can easily play guard, making him more attractive to other teams as well, but if the Ravens land him, expect him to be inserted at the helm of the line right away.

No. 28, New Orleans Saints: LB, Jamin Davis, Kentucky

The Saints scoop up the last linebacker remaining who’s first round worthy in Davis, and fill a hole on their defense.  Receiver is also certainly in play here, but Davis’ length and size forecasts him as a force in the New Orleans front seven.

No. 29, Green Bay Packers: C, Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma

Like New Orleans, Green Bay could certainly go receiver and make Aaron Rodgers happy, but having a line to protect him should be first on the priority list, especially considering that Rodgers had a MVP season last year with a weak set of weapons.

The Packers offensive line has fallen off substantially in the past year, and losing Corey Linsley to the Chargers in free agency opens up a hole at center.  Humphrey is arguably the best at his position in this draft, contingent on how one feels about Dickerson’s medicals.  This might be a reach, but this spot on the line makes the most sense for Green Bay at this point in the draft.

No. 30, Buffalo Bills: CB, Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State

The Bills have the second-best roster in football, so figuring out where to add to it is tough.  Samuel Jr. is the best cornerback available, and while Levi Wallace is by no means a bad player, Buffalo could seek to upgrade the spot adjacent to Tre’Davious White with this pick.

Samuel Jr. is his father reincarnated, though he has a lot to live up to.

No. 31, Baltimore Ravens: WR, Rondale Moore, Purdue

After addressing the line a couple picks prior, Baltimore can play around with this pick.

While the Ravens added some receivers to the mix in the offseason, neither of them are likely to move the needle.  Moore, despite his concerningly small size, is an absolute play-maker who would help bring Baltimore’s offense back to its 2019-level.

No. 32, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB, Najee Harris, Alabama

Tampa Bay has the best roster in the league and practically zero holes.

The idea of drafting a running back in the first round is usually idiotic, but the position is the one need the Buccaneers have.  In addition, Najee Harris is far and away the best running back in this class, and has the chance to be something quite special at the next level.  Crowd-sourcing the position with the likes of Leonard Fournette isn’t going to remain viable, and Harris gives the Bucs a reliable and versatile option.

How did these guys not go in the first round?

• Jaycee Horn: Horn is just too undisciplined and aggressive as a cornerback coming into the league.  Multiple safer options exist in this class.
• Mac Jones: Covered Monday.  You just don’t draft average talent in the first round, or even the second.
• Travis Etienne: Far and away the second-best back in this class, but at the end of the day, is still a running back.
• Gregory Rousseau Jr: A top high school recruit who never really lived up the billing and has a small sample size.  Incredible potential, but a lot needs to go right.
• Joe Tyron: In a weak class, better ends just exist.
• Jayson Oweh: Pressure without sacks is a legitimate skill in the NFL, but you can’t have that label coming out of college and be a first-round pick.  Sorry.
• Carlos Basham Jr.: Like Tyron, better ends just exist.  He should be a solid contributor for somebody in year one, though.
• Elijah Moore: Reminiscent of a Jalen Reagor from last year, just less fast, which makes him a tough evaluation.
• Terrace Marshall Jr.: A really intriguing prospect, but issues medically and off-the-field contribute to his fall.  His length is among the best in this class, and is a silky smooth route-runner.
• Levi Onwuzurike: It’s a bad defensive line class overall and Onwuzurike feels the burden of that.  He should still be a contributor for somebody in year one.
• Kadarius Toney: Gadget players aren’t first-round picks.

Select big boards:

QBs:

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Justin Fields
3. Trey Lance
4. Zach Wilson
5. Kyle Trask
6. Mac Jones
7. Davis Mills
8. Ian Book
9. Kellen Mond

RBs:

1. Najee Harris
2. Travis Etienne
3. Chuba Hubbard
4. Javonte Williams
5. Kenneth Gainwell
6. Jermar Jefferson
7. Kylin Hill

WRs:

(Oh boy)

1. DeVonta Smith
2. JaMarr Chase
3. Rashod Bateman
4. Jaylen Waddle
5. Rondale Moore
6. Terrace Marshall Jr.
7. Tylan Wallace
8. Elijah Moore
9. Amari Rodgers
10. Amon-Ra St. Brown
11. Seth Williams
12. Kadarius Toney
13. Josh Palmer
14. Anthony Schwartz
15. Dyami Brown
16. Frank Darby
17. Dax Milne
18. Marlon Williams

TEs:

1. Kyle Pitts
2. Tommy Tremble
3. Pat Freiermuth
4. Ben Mason

OL:

Positions fluctuate for most of the linemen in this class, so we’re ranking them as a whole based on their flexibility and pure talent.  Note: Mock draft may not match big board order.  Also: Oh boy.

1. Penei Sewell
2. Rashawn Slater
3. Alijah Vera-Tucker
4. Christian Darrisaw
5. Teven Jenkins
6. Alex Leatherwood
7. Landen Dickerson
8. Liam Eichenburg
9. Creed Humphrey
10. Samuel Cosmi
11. Wyatt Davis
12. Jalen Mayfield
13. Walker Little
14. Brady Christensen
15. Trey Smith
16. Stone Forsythe
17. Dillion Radunz
18. Spencer Brown
19. Ben Cleveland
20. Ben Meinerz

DEs:

1. Azeez Ojulari
2. Jaelan Phillips
3. Kwity Paye
4. Gregory Rousseau Jr.
5. Joe Tyron
6. Carlos Basham Jr.
7. Ronnie Perkins
8. Jayson Oweh

DTs:

1. Christian Barmore
2. Levi Onwuzurike
3. Milton Williams
4. Daviyon Nixon

LBs:

1. Micah Parsons
2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
3. Zaven Collins
4. Jamin Davis
5. Jabril Cox
6. Pete Werner
7. Dylan Moses
8. Nick Bolton
9. Baron Browning

CBs:

1. Patrick Surtain II
2. Caleb Farley
3. Greg Newsome II
4. Asante Samuel Jr.
5. Jaycee Horn
6. Kelvin Joseph
7. Tyson Campbell
8. Eric Stokes
9. Shaun Wade

The number of contingencies in this NFL Draft seems higher than ever.

With the first two picks seemingly set in stone, chaos is likely to begin at No. 3 overall.  Below we go through all the different logical scenarios, starting off with what should happen, and then attempting to project what actually will.

What should happen:

No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars: QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

No. 2, New York Jets: QB, Justin Fields, Ohio State

No. 3, San Francisco 49ers: QB, Trey Lance, North Dakota State

No. 4 possibility #1: Washington trade up

No. 4 possibility #2: Atlanta keeps the pick

The first scenario is a sneak peek of Thursday’s mock draft.

For now, let’s ignore how we get to this spot and look at what could and should happen, but almost certainly won’t.

The quarterback market is poor at this point, making Atlanta’s leverage seemingly low.  But teams across the board are hot for Wilson.

Still, let’s look at this logically.  With Wilson’s stature as a boom-or-bust prospect that just doesn’t have the volume of and impressive enough tape against top competition, teams shouldn’t totally go all-in on him like the Jets are almost guaranteed to do.  There has to be some buffer.

Denver was one of the teams listed as a possible trade-up candidate for Wilson, but their trade for Teddy Bridgewater on Wednesday signifies that they want to give Drew Lock one more chance, and if he falls through, they then have a QB decent enough behind him to still be competitive.  

Bridgewater needs a perfect situation and surrounding cast to be successful, which was not what Carolina was last season.  Denver offers that, and perhaps is one of the NFL’s best rosters outside of the quarterback position.  

It’s clear that Denver wasn’t too enthralled with their options at No. 9 overall, which is fair if Fields isn’t there.  But if he is available, and it’s seeming increasingly likely he will be, then the Bridgewater trade immediately becomes totally unnecessary.  It’s understandable that the Broncos don’t want to take the risk, though.  They cannot afford to squander the roster they have.

Washington is perhaps the only other team that makes sense for Wilson in this wild sequence of events.  Like Denver, its roster is talented (Perhaps not quite as much, but close).  That difference makes Washington’s case even stronger.  Wilson is no guarantee, but if he booms, he’s the type of talent that can elevate the cast around him – on both sides of the ball.

Three teams that could be considered in need of a quarterback – New England, Chicago and New Orleans – bow out at this point.  Wilson isn’t worth the risk for them.  The Patriots can give Cam Newton a final chance, now that he hopefully won’t be battling COVID-19 and will have adequate weapons around him.  They also paid him as if that was their intention.  Chicago can’t be making any big-time moves at the quarterback position unless it’s a guaranteed hit like Lawrence or Fields, because it’ll cost its entire front office their jobs and put the Bears in another QB purgatory if it doesn’t work out.

The Saints don’t need much at QB.  Last season was proof of that.  They possess one of the best rosters in football, and simply need someone to come in, guide the ship and not screw up.

Wilson could more than do that, but he also could do substantially less as well, which leads to New Orleans wasting a perfect roster.  In this draft class, Mac Jones might actually be the perfect guy for the Saints.  But trading up from the spot he deserves to go (No. 28 overall) into the top ten of the draft to get him is not a smart play given his ceiling as a passer. Prior to Bridgewater’s trade to Denver, the former Saints QB making a homecoming made perfect sense.

Of course, Atlanta isn’t the only chance for teams to trade down.  Cincinnati isn’t taking a quarterback at No. 5 overall, and its case for trading down is better than some may think (More on that below).  The Dolphins probably aren’t moving at No. 6 overall, just because their subsequent trade-up to that spot after trading down with San Francisco makes it clear they have a target in mind.  The Lions aren’t bound to taking anyone in particular at No. 7 overall and could use extra picks to build out a depleted roster.  The same goes for Carolina, who could find themselves reaching depending on who is available at No. 8.

At the same time, in this scenario, Wilson is the only QB worth trading up for, so there could be a bidding war for Atlanta’s pick.  Conversely, Kyle Pitts is not a bad pick for the Falcons whatsoever.  But Atlanta should probably be trading down, as Pitts doesn’t fill an exact need.  An impact defender should be its target.

What likely will happen:

No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars: QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

No. 2, New York Jets: QB, Zach Wilson, BYU

No. 3, San Francisco 49ers: QB, Mac Jones, Alabama

No. 4 possibility #1: New England trade up

No. 4 possibility #2: Washington trade up

No. 4 possibility #3: Chicago trade up

No. 4 possibility #4: New Orleans trade up

No. 4 possibility #5: Atlanta keeps the pick

Fields’ availability changes things for everyone.  His certainty as an above-average quarterback makes too much sense for New Orleans, who could trade up, bring him in, start him immediately and perhaps improve from what was essentially Drew Brees’ corpse last year, while certainly upgrading from what either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will be this season.  Washington could get a quarterback who can elevate their good-but-not-great roster immediately.  

The two most interesting teams in this scenario are the Patriots and Bears.  Chicago’s front office and coaching staff might be out the door no matter what after this season, so going all-in on one last quest to save their jobs by trading up for Fields may not seem that insane.  At the same time, trading up for two quarterbacks that busted in the top ten of the draft within four drafts worth of time probably has general manager Ryan Pace never working in football again.

Chicago already publicly committed to Andy Dalton as their starter this season, which makes things tricky.  Fields isn’t someone who’s worth benching – Chicago would be better off trading up for an instant contributor like him instead or remaining where they are with Dalton and rebooting next offseason.  

New England is also faced with an interesting dilemma in this scenario.  It’s not hard to buy into a Newton bounce-back year in 2021-22, but the former Panthers star will be 33 by the time the season begins.  Regardless of how he plays, it’s unlikely he’s the long-term answer for the Patriots.  At the same time, benching Fields doesn’t make sense to do, and he could play early in the year if Newton is truly washed.

As mentioned above, Atlanta’s preference should be to trade out, but taking Pitts is not a bad situation whatsoever if the offers don’t suit their fancy.  If they don’t move out, teams shouldn’t have to wait long to find another partner.  The right one could be sitting at the next pick.

What could happen: Pitts at 4, Cincinnati trade out

No. 1, Jacksonville Jaguars: QB, Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

No. 2, New York Jets: QB, Zach Wilson, BYU

No. 3, San Francisco 49ers: QB, Mac Jones, Alabama

No. 4: Atlanta Falcons: TE, Kyle Pitts, Florida

No. 5 possibility #1: New England trade up

No. 5 possibility #2: Washington trade up

No. 5 possibility #3: Chicago trade up

No. 5 possibility #4: New Orleans trade up

No. 5 possibility #5: Cincinnati keeps the pick

This might seem surprising, but the case for the Bengals to move out of No. 5 overall is better than you may think.

First of all: if Pitts is here, it’s a no-brainer pick for Cincinnati.  While it’s unfair to peg Pitts as strictly a tight end, the Bengals could really use an upgrade at that position and are slightly less lacking at wide receiver.  

That leads into the case for Cincy trading down.  As we begin to spoil Thursday’s mock draft, while the Bengals could use a for-sure No. 1 receiver, no one at No. 6 overall is incredibly appealing (DeVonta Smith will clock in at WR1 on the board, but his weight is a serious, serious concern) and Cincinnati has good weapons already.  In addition, if quarterback Joe Burrow is 100 percent healthy and recovered from his knee injury, he should be able to elevate the talent around him.

Now, Burrow can’t elevate the offensive line in front of him, given that 1) That’s a hard thing to do in general and 2) Given that he’s not a mobile quarterback.  But the Bengals should be in better shape up front this year than they were last.  Jonah Williams will be back and fully healthy, and Riley Reiff was given a sizable one-year contract to man the other tackle spot.  Penei Sewell isn’t someone you’re sitting on the bench for a year.

Cincinnati needs help more so on the inside of its offensive line.  Sewell could play guard, but that seems like a waste of his talent.  Why not trade out, pick up an impact defender or interior lineman and get extra future picks when QB-hungry teams are salivating?

If Cincinnati trades down, which is obviously unlikely, it triggers the same action that would occur if Atlanta trades out of No. 4 overall: New England, Washington, New Orleans and Chicago get on the phone and start bidding for Fields or whichever quarterback they prefer.

Further down the line, more trade-down candidates exist.  Depending on which players are available, Detroit could make some sense as a partner if New England or Washington wants to move up.  At the same time, figuring out whether Jared Goff is the guy or not is probably priority No. 1 for the Lions, and selecting a receiver with that pick helps them do that.  Carolina is in a spot where they will probably be reaching at No. 8 overall – they could move down and still land an impact cornerback, linebacker, guard or defensive tackle.  

With quarterback seemingly out of the cards, Denver becomes an intriguing trade-down candidate at No. 9 overall.  Its loaded roster doesn’t have many holes, and Micah Parsons – who’d be a perfect fit in their defense and fills their only real gap in talent – seems likely to slide a bit given (concerning) off-the-field issues.

After that, teams seem likely to have QBs slide to them, or they will run out of trade partners.  The Giants should make their pick.  Philadelphia is almost certainly making theirs, though Thursday’s mock has them reaching for a wide receiver that it could likely trade down to select.  The Chargers and Vikings should make their picks, and by then we reach New England – who’s one of the primary trade-up candidates, not down.

To prepare for what is shaping up to be a historic Thursday night, here is a look at the Hub’s top six quarterback prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft – including the five expected to go in the first round – and an extra one who should. 

QB1: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Top 5 pick)

Lawrence’s only weakness is something he has no control over – yet.

Expectations are historically high for the presumptive No. 1 overall pick.  He has no way of proving he can hit them until September rolls along.

History is on his side.  No quarterback with the generational label attached to his name has failed.  The list is John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Lawrence.  That’s it.

He hasn’t gotten here by accident.  Pegged with the sacred term in high school, Lawrence only met expectations in college.  With a cannon for an arm and accuracy that seems impossibly good, the Clemson junior consistently won with a good roster around him – but not one up to the par of other QBs in this draft (Most notably, Justin Fields and Mac Jones).  His height and length gives him incredible advantages in ball placement and throwing on the run, while his slender frame may be slightly concerning.  

That said, Lawrence did an okay job keeping himself healthy when escaping the pocket in college, and should be able to use his running ability to an extent at the next level.

The expectations are reachable for Lawrence.  He met them in college with ease.  While Jacksonville was the worst team in football last season, they’re in better shape than at least two other teams in the league.  The Jaguars are functional, and whether Urban Meyer is the right man for Jacksonville’s head gig or not, he’s certainly a good enough coach.

QB2: Justin Fields, Ohio State (Top 5 pick)

This should not be up for debate.

The public torching of Fields the past couple of months has no basis.  Sure, the former Ohio State star may not be as good as Lawrence, or may not have the ceiling that other quarterbacks in this class do, but in a draft that has a sure bet atop it, Fields isn’t much far behind.

Let’s start with the negatives, perceived and real.  Much has been written about Fields’ ability to scan beyond his first read, rather than not advance past it.  The whole idea was lunacy in the first place, but even if there was truth to it, the reason for it would be rooted in a positive attribute: Fields can make almost any throw, and his accuracy is perhaps his biggest strength.

Fields has tended to make poor decisions throwing the ball, which could be the origin of the first-read bias.  He can get flustered in the pocket and sling it, ignoring his other options.  But when his situation is clean, Fields takes his time to read the field.

That’s about it when it comes to Fields’ downsides.  His size when running should keep him healthy, but there’s always concern about quarterbacks built like him breaking down (Similar to Cam Newton, who’s built very much like Fields).  

His dual-threat ability is scary.  Fields can’t sling it like others in this class, but his zip on short-to-intermediate throws makes up for it.  A consistent downside of NFL quarterbacks is their inability to make tough throws across the middle of the field or in tight coverage.  While he can’t get it deep downfield, Fields can make those tough passes, and if not, defenses then get to deal with a 6’3 tank barreling toward them.

If Fields fails, it’ll likely be due to an inability to reduce turnovers and/or because of poor offensive line play.  But given his accuracy and big-game readiness, he should be the No. 2 overall pick on Thursday night, and if he’s not, whoever gets him will be getting a steal.

QB3: Trey Lance, North Dakota State (Early first-round pick)

Lance is the most complicated evaluation in this draft.

On one end, he’s a lights-out prospect who, despite a thin frame, throws the ball with strength and accuracy, doesn’t make mistakes and can make any throw on the run.  He is lightning quick and brings a true dual-threat presence to the table, where a team can totally restructure their offense around him to incorporate college-like schemes and play designs Lamar Jackson-style.

On the other end, Lance is a varsity star playing against the sophomores.  After the freak talent somehow only ended up at FCS school North Dakota State, he beat up on lesser talent and took advantage of a loaded roster and beautiful play-calling.  He only had one full season of being a starting quarterback and has 17 career starts.  In those starts, the most passes he ever threw was 31.  The second-most was 30, and the third-most was 23.

In many ways negative and positive, it’s almost like Lance was playing a different game than football.  His conquering of opponents was that dominant.  But his numbers and team’s style of play makes him look like he was incredibly replaceable – almost like he wasn’t even serving the role of a QB.

Because of all this, Lance probably needs a year or two before starting.  Typically, players that aren’t ready in their first year aren’t worthy of first-round selections.  That still holds true for the most part, but Lance is an exception given his position and ceiling.  It’s not his fault he had no season in 2020 to better himself and improve his stock.  If Lance hits his ceiling, we might be looking at a type of quarterback the league has simply never seen before.

QB4: Zach Wilson, BYU (Early first-round pick)

The hype makes sense.

Wilson’s rise is reminiscent of Jordan Love last year.  Teams are terrified of missing out on someone like Patrick Mahomes, who can make something out of nothing seemingly every play while maintaining their presence as a pocket passer.    

Wilson fits that bill.  He has a cannon for an arm, which can get the best of him at times.  His accuracy tends to be better when he throws long, as that bazooka misaims more times than you’d like it to in the short and intermediate areas of the field.  He’s not a runner but is mobile, and is perhaps at his best when he can keep the defense guessing with what he is going to do with the ball.  

Like Lance, the biggest question mark with Wilson is his sample size and competition.  Both are one-year wonders who flourished against lower-level teams.   Wilson, gratefully, was at least tasked with more in his offense, and wasn’t being used in almost a complementary fashion at BYU.  They let him sling it, and he did that pretty well.

The biggest question with Wilson is whether his theatrics are going to work or not.  From a pure football standpoint, Wilson is almost flawless.  His ability to throw the ball deep reliably should be coveted, as so many QBs in the league struggle with it.  Aside from that arm occassionally getting the best of him, football ability isn’t what plagues Wilson.  It’s things that are out of his control – the competiton he faced.  

It’s a nervous-wracking bet for whoever takes Wilson.  Weapons around him won’t appease.  There’s not much a coaching staff is going to do help him. A team will know close to Day-1 whether he’s going to be it or not.  

QB5: Kyle Trask, Florida (Late first-round pick)

This will likely be the biggest surprise on the board.

The evalution of Trask is perhaps colored by what Florida was before his intregration as a starter.  The Gators’ struggles at quarterback over the years – most notably highlighed by the ineffectiveness of Feleipe Franks – led to offense that had incredible trouble moving the ball.

Trask came in and lit it up.  Florida was a completely different team with him under center.  The ball moved forward, and went deep downfield.  Trask picked apart defenses left and right.  

The ability to move the ball downfield is what seperates Trask from Mac Jones.  Trask was never and isn’t afraid to make the tough throws.  Jones let his surrouding cast do the work, and had infinite help.  Trask had good weapons as well, and that will likely be a key to potential success in the NFL, but Jones’ projection as a game-manager sees him slide past Trask on this big board.

Trask may not be much more than that, but with him at the helm you can at least feel better about the ball moving downfield.  Jones will need a perfect arsenal of weapons and then some.

QB6: Mac Jones, Alabama (2nd round pick)

You don’t draft players for their ability to reach average performance.

You draft players who you think could be great, or at least good, especially in the first round.

Jones doesn’t project as either.  He has an average arm that is limited to shorter throws.  He was in a perfect scheme with perfect weapons, which made the tough throws easy.  Sure, his accuracy is great, but every QB’s should be when asked to make throws Jones did with play-makers like that on-hand.

The most common problem in the NFL is teams having quarterbacks who are good and not great – those who need perfect situations and scenarios to be successful.  Jones is one of those players, and doesn’t have the upside to grow out of it either.

Additionally, like other QBs in this draft, his sample size is small, and was helped out significantly by a roster that will have at least three or four other players selected in the first round.

The talent around Jones was better than Jones himself.  Somehow, that notion has been reversed lately.  If a team is looking for competnecy, then Jones is their guy.  But that team better know what it’s doing elsewhere on the field, and then will likely have to say some prayers.

Other ranked QBs in this class:

QB7: Davis Mills, Stanford

QB8: Ian Book, Notre Dame

QB9: Kellen Mond, Texas A&M