Here are some thoughts on the NFC and AFC Championship Games along with a look at the market for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Buccaneers-31 Packers-26

• The effect of turnovers on a single game are talked about ad nauseam.  But no contest greater magnified their importance than Sunday’s NFC Championship Game.
• From the start, Green Bay was overmatched.  Tampa Bay was a team of sputtering yet scary offense all season that at its worst featured a fearsome defense.  On one side of the ball, teams knew what they were getting with the Buccaneers throughout the year.
• The Packers struggled against Tampa Bay’s defense.  Its offense had no chance against Tampa Bay’s front, resulting in discombobulation. The Bucs and Tom Brady were having a good day, cooking Green Bay’s defense, thanks to beautiful balls from Brady to a host of receivers (in addition to a terrible blown coverage right before halftime which resulted Scotty Miller’s touchdown catch).  The Packers offense was left with no room for error, which it certainly encountered and resulted in them being down 21-10 at the half.
• The break didn’t bring good fortune right away.  Desperately needing a score, Green Bay fumbled three plays into its first drive of the second half.  The Bucs scored immediately after, seemingly putting the game away by virtue of a three possession lead.
• But Tampa Bay kicked off its own turnover party after Green Bay’s miscues allowed them to build the lead.  Brady threw three picks – all of which had some of his fault embedded in them.  The first was a deep shot to Mike Evans that was lofted a bit too high, allowing Packers safety Adrian Amos to fly over and intercept the pass on what was truly a great play by the former Bear.   The second was a high ball intended for Evans, who probably could have caught it given that his fingers made contact, but Brady’s placement was a little too high even for the 6-foot-5-inch receiver to snag it.  
• The third pick was a pure duck as Brady attempted to escape pressure. Green Bay didn’t recoup points from that pick, and only went 1/3 with points off of each possession change.  Blame whatever occurred later in the game for the Packers’ loss if you want, but the inability to cash in on two golden opportunities looms large as well.
• Green Bay had a chance to redeem itself for the missed chances.  Down eight with 2:05 left, the Packers opted to kick a field goal on the eight yard line on fourth down as opposed to going for it.  An egregious decision, Matt LaFleur essentially called the game away there.  
• Skeptics will tell you that points is better than no points.  That’s fine, and sometimes true, but only to a certain extent.  If the Packers were able to stop Tampa Bay on the ensuing drive, they’d still need to a score a touchdown in order to take the lead – which is the same thing they would have attempted to do on 4th and goal while leaving more time on the clock for a last-second heave if they didn’t convert on the 4th down and forced Tampa Bay to a three-and-out.
• A touchdown on 4th and goal likely would have led to a two-point conversion attempt, which if converted, obviously ties the game, but if not, allows a field goal to take the lead if the Packers defense made a stop after the change of possession.
• Going for it just makes things easier.  It’s a move that has a higher ceiling when it comes to the objective of winning the game, while causing zero harm if not successful.  In addition, you’re backing up the Buccaneers offense deep in their own territory.  Their backs are against the wall, and while unlikely, the odds of a safety increase.
• The Packers didn’t even play it safe by kicking.  They played it stupidly.  
• You would have thought, after watching two teams go home from these playoffs as a result of the same dumb play-calling, that the Packers would have learned.  But they didn’t, and now Aaron Rodgers is mad.
• Green Bay fans can be upset all they want about the pass interference call on Kevin King with 1:46 left that sealed the game for Tampa Bay, which, yes, was an outlier call given how the referees officiated the contest and, yes, was probably awarded partially due to a magnificent flopping job by rookie wide receiver Tyler Johnson who, yes, was not affected at all by King’s jersey grab.  But it’s in the rules – you can’t tug on someone’s jersey to defend them, and had the Packers just decided to go for it on 4th and goal, we likely wouldn’t be arguing about this at all.
• Green Bay might have gotten screwed over (Hint: not really), but they could have avoided it.  Instead, they enter an offseason that might have more drama and turmoil than they could have ever imagined.

Chiefs-38 Bills-24 

• The Chiefs being down two possessions is like any other team being down eight points.
• Coming back from down eight is a harder task than doing the same against seven or fewer points thanks to the variability of the two-point conversion, but neither of those compare to thee challenge two possessions is for most teams.
• Buffalo’s 9-0 lead felt insecure in the moment.  The immediate shock value of Kansas City’s sudden deficit was surmised by almost a comforting feeling: that this was the Chiefs, and that almost no lead on them ever matters.
• The Bills’ lead was also not a byproduct of their own doing.  A long field goal gave them the first three points, while a horrible fumble by Mecole Hardman on a punt return set Buffalo up at the three yard line soon after, where the Bills scored immediately and missed the extra point.  It all happened fast – which typically isn’t the formula best suited to beat the Chiefs.
• In an instant, Kansas City led.  Nine-to-zero Bills was soon 21-9 Chiefs, thanks to Tyreek Hill and Kansas City’s blazing offensive speed once again torching another defense.  As defensive backs chased around Hill and Hardman, Kelce sat wide open in the middle of the field and cleaned up as usual.  
• You just don’t defend the Chiefs.  It’s a pick-your-poison offense that is likely going to beat you one way or the other.  Buffalo needed its offense to show up Sunday to have a chance, and instead Josh Allen turned in a performance that looked like it was off of his rookie tape.
• Averaging just six yards per attempt, Allen completed just 28/48 passes.  He missed receivers, threw dangerous balls and made dumb decisions while scrambling.  His 88 yards rushing led the team by a wide margin, and Cole Beasley’s own 88 receiving was the most on the Bills as well in that respective category.  Kansas City’s defense surprisingly got immense pressure, which seemed to throw Allen off the scent just enough.  It was the worst game Allen has played since he made the leap forward, which dates back to before last season.
• The Bills attempted to make a rally late, but became the latest team (Four of them in two weeks time!) to waive the white flag and get sent home by not going for it on 4th down or not attempting a two-point conversion.  Down 12 midway through the third quarter, Buffalo decided to kick on 4th and 3 on the Chiefs’ eight yard-line instead of attempting to gain three yards.  The good field goal was a purely lateral move – the Bills then watched Kansas City take a 31-15 lead on the ensuing drive, which had the possibility of being a 31-20 lead had the Bills been aggressive.  An 11 or even 12 (if they didn’t go for two – which would have been decently acceptable) point deficit only requires one two-point attempt, not two to tie or take the lead.  If the Bills were in the business of making things easier on themselves and not relying so heavily on one play must-haves, going for it early would have been the right move.
• No matter what the Bills did on the end of that possession, them winning was still unlikely.  Kansas City – unsurprisingly – was the better team, and looked purely unstoppable almost the entire game.  If Allen had showed up, perhaps a duel would have ensued, but offense – most notably the type Buffalo doesn’t play (run-heavy, clock eating-schemes) – is what it takes to put the Chiefs away.  The Bills couldn’t do that, and there’s a good chance the last team standing in football aside from Kansas City won’t either.

On Matthew Stafford’s impending trade…

The Matthew Stafford market is much different than the one that exists for Deshaun Watson.

As written about last week, Watson is the type of player that almost every team in the league has to consider acquiring.  He’s an elite, top ten QB in the league, which is invaluable at the age of 25.

We’ve also seen the bare minimum of what he is capable of.  The Texans have wasted most of his young years so far, and the Clemson product has still shone and at times been an MVP candidate.  Imagine what he’s capable of literally anywhere else.

Stafford is not Watson.  His numbers and his ability (or lack thereof) to affect winning are indicative of that.  Detroit hasn’t treated Stafford much better than Houston has Watson over the course of his career, but the former No. 1 overall pick hasn’t came through like Watson has.  In four seasons as Houston’s quarterback, Watson has taken the Texans to the playoffs twice.  Stafford has done the same with the Lions just once more, and that’s with a six-year head start.

The bottom line: most of the teams in on Watson should be much different from those in on Stafford.

The Cardinals, for example, are not trading Kyler Murray for Stafford unless Detroit sends multiple attractive draft picks back in a deal (There’s almost no deal that makes that worth it for Arizona).  Arizona dealing Murray and some other stuff (hint: it wouldn’t be much else) for Watson, however, might make sense.

The teams that can use Stafford likely miss out on Watson.  But that doesn’t mean everyone can use Stafford.

The gunslinger needs foundation, coaching and weapons.  That’s been made clear after what we’ve seen in Detroit.  These need to be teams that have contending-level rosters and solid skill position players in place in order for Stafford to succeed.

Who are those teams?  Well, New Orleans has one of the best rosters in football whether Drew Brees retires or not.  If he has played his last down, the Saints would make perfect sense.  The same goes for Pittsburgh, whose quarterback (Like New Orleans) might have been the biggest thing holding them back this year.  The 49ers would make a ton of sense, as San Francisco is a year off from making the Super Bowl and has underrated offensive weapons.  Indianapolis was clearly attempting to go as far as they could this season with Phillip Rivers, though that team may not be good enough to elevate Stafford and might be better off going in a younger direction at QB.  Chicago could use anything they could get right now at QB, and there’s some sneaky talent on both sides of the ball there (On the sidelines and in the front office however, not so much!).  The Rams swapping out Jared Goff for Stafford would be mighty intriguing, and Denver throwing him into that loaded offense could light up the league.

But that’s about it for Stafford.  Every other team is better off going all in for Watson or staying put where they are.  It’s a limited market for the Lions, and in a low leverage situation, a potentially concerning, sell-low move awaits.

Here are some notes from Sunday’s Divisional Round games followed by a primer on what could be an offseason trade of Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson.

Chiefs-22 Browns-17

• Who gets the blame here?  Patrick Mahomes’ greatness or the Browns?
• Mahomes and the Chiefs came out of the gate ablaze.  Kansas City was up 19-3 at halftime, which should have been 23-3 thanks to a missed extra point and field goal by the usually ultra-reliable Harrison Butker.  Butker’s missed kicks – most notably the extra point – were perhaps the only thing keeping Cleveland in the game.  A single point before half would have put Kansas City up three possessions in a contest where Cleveland struggled to comeback from down two.
• The Browns defense – which was arguably the team’s downfall at the end of the day – had no chance against the speed of Kansas City’s offense.  Dump-offs to Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman gained big yardage.  Travis Kelce was a sieve as usual over the middle.  Mahomes got nifty, rushing for a touchdown and getting first downs with his (at times hurting) legs.  
• It didn’t last forever.  Mahomes – as if he wasn’t hurting enough with a supposed toe injury – was concussed midway through the third quarter after Cleveland put together its best drive of the game to make it 19-10.  Prior to that, Kansas City squandered an opportunity to once again to extend its lead to three possessions after Baker Mayfield threw a horrible pick, only for Butker’s missed field goal to follow up the forced turnover.  Chad Henne salvaged the drive Mahomes left, but the Chiefs didn’t score again.
• Once Henne entered, the game not only felt within reach for the Browns, but inevitable.  The momentum had flipped, and Mahomes to Henne represented perhaps the biggest talent drop-off in the league.  It felt like the Browns should win.
• They came damn close.  A score on the backs of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt cut the Chiefs’ lead to five.  Henne’s attempt to put the game away on the ensuing drive resulted in a horrendous interception – allowing Cleveland right back in it.  
• The drive came up short.  To the dismay of many, Cleveland punted on 4th and 9 down five with 4:19 left on its own 32.  The Browns’ single timeout remaining caused most of this commotion – they had no way to stop Kansas City’s rushing attack more than once minus the two-minute warning.
• Both sides had a good case.  Going for it and not securing the first down puts pressure on Henne to ice the game, or Butker to make a big kick on a bad day.  A Butker make keeps it a one-score game – whereas a miss would be the best case scenario.
• Henne’s ability to go 32 yards for a score seemed feeble – though that was certainly proved wrong after the punt.  
• At the same time, nine yards is a long way.  Mayfield was horrible Sunday, and you’re not running the ball in that situation.  Despite the timeout disadvantage, four minutes is much longer than two.  
• With the way Cleveland’s offense played Sunday, it’s hard to say that had it hadn’t punted, it would have won the game.
• The Browns probably weren’t expecting Henne to turn into a mix of Mahomes and Kyler Murray once they punted, nor were they thinking that a 3rd and 14 for the Chiefs wouldn’t result in them receiving one final chance.
• Whether it was bad defense or a fluke, the Chiefs back-to-back plays on 3rd and 14 and 4th and 1 were something out of a Madden game.  Henne’s run was one of the most improbable postseason plays ever, while the 4th and 1 call had the widest range of outcomes out of any play in the game (An incredible statement to make considering the Browns’ fumbling of a touchdown out of the back of the end zone for a touchdown earlier).
• The play-call was perfect.  Despite Mahomes’ absence, the Chiefs went back to what burned Cleveland in the first half: speed.  A simple, shallow crosser to Hill sealed it, and the Browns never touched the ball again.
• Cleveland leaves this game perhaps clueless.  They never had a chance against Mahomes, and let Henne do things a backup quarterback should never dream of doing.  That would signify that the defense is at fault, but Mayfield’s performance is hard to ignore, and when Mahomes is playing at that level, it begs the question as to whether Mayfield can ever even put up a fight.

Buccaneers-30 Saints-20

• This was the most hotly contested bad game in awhile.
• Neither offense or quarterback played well, even though both sides combined for 50 points.  No one dominated, as the score was tied at halftime and a brutal Drew Brees interception secured the two possession lead and victory for Tampa Bay.
• Alvin Kamara was New Orleans’ saving grace.  Aside from Brees’ beautiful touchdown pass to Tre’Quan Smith, the QB’s likely swan-song game was a struggle, and the Bucs’ defense magnified it by keeping all their defenders up near the line of scrimmage.  That made gaining yards solely Kamara’s job.
• It was an okay performance.  Kamara finished with 85 yards on 18 carries, but Saints turnovers doomed what should have been a lieu of successful drives.  New Orleans punted just twice Sunday, but an early interception thrown by Brees doomed one of its empty drives in the first half, which enabled Tampa Bay to take a 10-6 lead.
• Brees and Saints couldn’t get out of their own way later in the game.  A fumble by Jared Cook allowed Tampa Bay to tie the game at 20 with 4:41 left in the third quarter.  New Orleans got nothing in response, picking the worst possible time to punt the ball back to the Bucs.  A score there would have provided a buffer for what was about to come.
• After the Bucs took a 23-20 lead, New Orleans met their destiny for the day.  On a play that seemed to be more of a miscommunication than Brees’ fault, Kamara ran a go route from the backfield that was intended to be a hitch.  Brees threw it right to Devin White – who was in perfect position thanks to Tampa Bay’s second half adjustment of playing its linebackers up – as Kamara ran straight downfield, not turning his head, and sealed the game for the Bucs as they scored four plays later.
• The Saints were able overcome Brees’ deficiencies all year.  A fantastic defense and Kamara’s brilliance allowed for that.  But a meltdown was coming, and that came Sunday. A gimmick with Jameis Winston throwing the ball 40 yards downfield was the Saints’ best play of the day, and Brees’ turnovers were the single difference between him and Brady.  The challenges faced by New Orleans were small, but in the end were still too much.

On the escalating Deshaun Watson situation….

It seems increasing likely that a Deshaun Watson trade will occur at some point this offseason.  To prepare for what could be the largest, most important trade in NFL history, here’s a primer which will serve as part one to a future column that breaks down potential destinations for the star quarterback.

The Texans certainly should not trade Watson.  He’s one of the game’s elite signal-callers, and still has the “young” adjective attached to his name.  Those players don’t just become available.

It doesn’t seem like Houston will accommodate him, though.  Reports have suggested that Watson wants a combination of his choosing of the team’s next head coach, executive Jack Easterby fired (Not a bad idea) and owner Cal NcNair to relinquish control (Also not a bad idea).  The stories about Easterby are damning and are a perfect illustration of how sour things can get when those unqualified are in charge.  Firing him shouldn’t be hard, but McNair’s supposed religious bond with the former Patriots staffer seems to be what’s keeping him around.  McNair, obviously, won’t sell – and why would he?  He’s making money whether his team is a dumpster fire or not.

That reasoning is why the Texans likely lose Watson this offseason.  McNair – as no owner would – isn’t selling the team for a single player to be happy.  He personally gains nothing from that.

Easterby’s departure and the hiring of, perhaps, Eric Bieniemy would be positives for the Texans – and should result in Watson actually giving them a chance.  But neither of those things seem likely to occur, and we’re here as a result.

Watson is the type of player and talent that requires every front office to sit down and have a meeting about whether it makes sense for their respective team.  He’s too good, and quarterback is too important.

However, there are seven teams that shouldn’t be in this discussion:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Finding the succession plan for Tom Brady would make sense.  But the Bucs aren’t flipping Brady based on how invested they are in him, and you’re not keeping Watson and Brady on your roster at the same time.

• Seattle Seahawks

We saw what Russell Wilson is capable of early in the season.  Seattle needs to hone in on what enabled that run of success, sure up its offensive line and add a play-maker on offense.  If they did want to get involved, their offer might trump everyone else’s.

• Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers’ MVP season makes his age become a non-factor.  Plus, the Packers already have his successor in Jordan Love.  It’s likely both players would have to be moved to Houston for a deal to work.

• Buffalo Bills

If the Watson situation blew up before this season, then perhaps there’d be a conversation had here.  Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber season makes the AFC Championship-bound Bills non-participants in trade talks, though. 

• Kansas City Chiefs

Duh.

• Los Angeles Chargers

It’s truly incredible that Los Angeles is on this list, but Justin Herbert established himself as the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year this season and is three years younger than Watson.  If the Chargers were to jump in, their immediate offer is better than almost everyone else’s.

• Jacksonville Jaguars

Potentially the most controversial team on this list, the thinking here for the Jaguars is complicated.  This is no easy decision.

Jacksonville has the simplest trade package in the league.  It’d be April’s No. 1 overall pick for Watson straight up.  That would be the whole deal.  Trevor Lawrence is that good, and breaks the barrier of sure-thing/knowing what you get (Watson) versus potential and the unknown (To some people, Lawrence).  

But prospects who are this highly-touted and this good just don’t fail.  Lawrence is on the Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow level of players – neither of those guys failed, or have so far.  

Those are generational players.  Lawrence deserves that description, and he’s going to live up to it too.  As good as Watson is – a (at least) top 10 QB and MVP candidate this past season – he’s never had the “generational” label, and never will.

You can’t pass up generational, and therefore, Jacksonville needs to stay out of it.

---

With these teams out of the mix, what’s left for the remaining teams in the sweepstakes to offer is one the following: a serviceable quarterback or a draft pick than ensures Houston either Trevor Lawrence (not happening) or Justin Fields in April’s draft (There’s a hint at how the Hub’s QB big board is shaking out), plus other players and/or picks. 

Houston can’t come out of this trade and head into next season with (checks notes) AJ McCarron or Josh McCown as its quarterback.  There has to be some direction at the position, whether it’s building toward the future with a rookie or attempting to win now with whatever (likely underwhelming) pieces.  In essence, any trade Houston makes that involves Watson must have a quarterback in the return.

A serviceable QB doesn’t have to mean a necessarily good one.  By using that term, we’re basically ruling out these QBs coming back to Houston in a deal: Gardner Minshew, Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles, Taylor Heinicke, Nick Mullens and Andy Dalton.  It’s viable to see the Texans talking themselves into everyone else, and some deals might actually make sense (That is, given Watson refuses to play).

With that in mind, the Bears and Cowboys are likely out (Fields falling to Dallas would be insane), as they lack a pick that truly secures Houston Lawrence or Fields and don’t have a QB they could offer in a trade back (Dak Prescott is a free agent).

That leaves 21 teams who should be in on Watson.  Let the bidding commence.

When all cylinders were firing for every team involved in this new, ugly NBA season, arguably no team looked and played better than the Brooklyn Nets.

Kevin Durant was back – and not just playing basketball – but playing basketball the way he used to play it, showing no signs that his Achilles tear in the 2019 NBA Finals was going to slow him down.  Kyrie Irving was a sorcerer, scoring in his usual variety of ways while making defenses pay for focusing too much attention toward Durant.  

Caris LeVert was playing perhaps the best basketball of his career.  He’d tied his career-high field goal percentage while handling an uptick in usage and raising his assist total from last season by 1.6 a game.  He had limited his turnovers while handling the ball at a greater clip thanks a new, exciting role as a sixth man.

All of that action on the Nets court left Joe Harris completely wide open, where he’s cashed in threes at a 51.7% mark this season on 5.7 attempts per game.  His number of shots could double and the same percent of them would likely go in.

The Nets – even at just 6-6 and seventh in the Eastern Conference – were killing it. They ranked fourth in offensive rating and 12th defensively – the latter more impressive as Brooklyn has been without its two stars for a majority of the season and has the character of a team that’d mail in on that side of the ball.  They also lost Spencer Dinwiddie for the year – a key rotation player whose minutes and production fell into the laps of a struggling Landry Shamet and an inexperienced Bruce Brown.  Plus, a first-time head coach in Steve Nash was charged with navigating all of this.

Now, the sailing through potentially tough times with little expectations turns into the opposite of that.  The Nets now have James Harden instead of Caris LeVert, and thing are great.  But the pressure is on.

---

The package it took for Brooklyn to land Harden is massive and unprecedented.  For the third time in two years, we’ve seen the biggest draft pick package in NBA history moved along for a superstar (Anthony Davis, Paul George/Kawhi Leonard, and now Harden).  Houston’s control of Brooklyn’s next eight picks represents the exact type of deal the Rockets wanted in exchange for its former MVP’s services, and like the Lakers’ deal for Davis did in 2019, makes up for the lack of a true star or young player coming back from Brooklyn (Houston was able to get that star though, as we’ll address soon).

For the Nets, Harden, those picks, LeVert and Jarrett Allen is all a risk worth taking.  There’s few excuses for them to win the title now.  Harden’s replacement of LeVert gives Brooklyn more reliable shooting, upgrades the its No. 1 ball-handling role and affects winning to a much higher degree (Harden’s not the best player on a championship team despite his definite status as a top 7-8 player in this league, but he doesn’t need to be that on this team).  

Most fascinating about Harden’s move to Brooklyn is whether he or Irving is the point guard.  That doesn’t mean one has to necessarily take a backseat, but these are both players that we’ve haggled with in the past about what their true position is.  Harden’s been paired with multiple point guards in the past, only for those duos to result in failure.  It would be interesting to see what Harden can do solely as a shooting guard, where he’s focused on purely scoring and not running an offense.  Brooklyn offers him the opportunity to return to his Oklahoma City-like role, but then it’s Irving – a less gifted passer and perhaps more selfish player – deciding who gets the ball.

Flip things the other way around and the same problem emerges.  Irving might be better suited just getting his own buckets rather than facilitating them out.  Harden’s fantastic passing skills make him at the 1 work, but his historic usage rates and built-in habits of initiating possessions could lead to a clogging of the Nets offense, and fizzle Durant and Irving completely out of the scheme.

These scenarios are scary.  Perhaps its the result of overthinking though.  Brooklyn now has two of the seven best guys in the league, and three of the top 15 or so, with Irving able to elevate to Harden’s level with a sense of unselfishness.  Those three guys can get any shot they want at any time.  

There’s also a chance Brooklyn doesn’t have all of those three guys, and that the trade for Harden serves as insurance for that.  Irving remains away from the team for personal reasons, with not only us but the Nets uncertain of when his return will be.  That’s concerning – for Irving and for Brooklyn – and might have been the catalyst for the Harden deal.  Durant’s playing at a level high enough to carry Brooklyn without Irving – though Dinwiddie’s absence would have meant a large ball-handling load for the forward coming off Achilles surgery.

Harden serves as a fall-back for that deathly scenario, and pairs Durant with his former OKC teammate to form perhaps the most potent guard-forward combo in the league.  

If Irving’s absence is prolonged, the loss of LeVert may prove larger than expected.  Brooklyn was getting by with its two stars and its sixth man.  In a world without Irving, its down to just two stars and… Jeff Green.

The sending off of Jarrett Allen wasn’t shocking but also shows the true colors of Brooklyn’s intentions.  They’re a star-based team now, and such means appeasing those stars as well.  That means DeAndre Jordan plays, starts and closes, a laughable load considering Allen’s presence on the team prior to Wednesday. At least Brooklyn has eliminated controversy, but Allen’s youth and athleticism is a stark contrast from the low effort and washed look of Jordan.  In addition, only receiving a second round pick from Cleveland in exchange for Allen is majorly selling low.

Brooklyn rid itself of literally all depth it possessed in Wednesday’s deal.  The Rockets also got Rodions Kurucs – who’d get more shine if Harris wasn’t on the Nets and needs more minutes to show off his shooting stroke.  At 22, he’s a rare young player on Houston’s roster that Brooklyn probably could have gotten away with keeping.

The Nets need the trade for Harden to work.  Like, really need for it to work.  Riding on its success is only eight first round picks and two young pieces sent away.  For a team to make a deal like that, it has to be sure, have no second guesses and no questions about whether it was worth it.  

Brooklyn is paying for its team to have a higher ceiling here.  While the roster the Nets have is guaranteed on paper to a win a title, nothing in this league ever is exactly that.  However, with Harden in hand, Brooklyn has more of a guarantee than it did previously.  Issues and questions exist – violating the rules set above – but finding a team more talented and scary throughout basketball is tough.  Nothing was guaranteed with Brooklyn’s prior roster construction, but the same adjectives could have been used on Tuesday – or any day before.

---

For as contentious as the situation got and as subordinated as the Rockets were,  their dumping of Harden to the Nets resulted in one of the biggest returns ever for a star player, and gave Houston a rare mix of present and future value that keeps both timelines afloat.

First, Houston landed the star player they coveted in a Harden trade in Indiana’s Victor Oladipo, who while likely not an All-NBA talent, is just outside that range and could elevate to it with health on his side.  They chose Oladipo over LeVert, which is a purely win-now, upside-focused move with Oladipo’s impending free agency.  While it won’t make Houston a contender this year, it at least gives Oladipo a familiarity with the city and team, which could make him more likely to stay next summer.

At that point, Houston could be an intriguing bunch.  John Wall, Oladipo, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Christian Wood certainly isn’t a bad team and would figure to be a solid playoff bunch with proper acquaintance.  Wall’s renaissance this season has been a great story, and Oladipo’s shown his potential in the past.  Wood is a monster, and Houston’s impressive and surprising youth (Jae’Sean Tate, Sterling Brown and Mason Jones) gives them more to work with than previously thought (That’s not accounting for Kurucs and Dante Exum, who’s suitable as a fourth guard).  

If Oladipo doesn’t work out and leaves, Houston takes a swing at raising its stock for this season and potentially next while losing out on LeVert.  As much as we’d like for LeVert to be that guy, he doesn’t have the ceiling Oladipo does.

The picks received from Brooklyn aren’t only incredible in a vacuum, but are massive for a Houston team that owes Oklahoma City at least two first round picks and potentially four depending on whether the Thunder want to swap spots this draft and in 2025.  With this surplus, it gives Houston the flexibility to dump some of them into a trade for another star player someday – whether that be to maximize a roster hampered by Wall’s contract or well into the future.  Either way, Houston now joins only two other teams in the league with a war chest this deep – New Orleans and OKC being the other two.  That’s a rare class, and neither of those teams are currently better than Houston is right now.

After a slow start to the season on the Harden front, things blew up Tuesday night and quickly manifested.  Despite what was a rapid escalation of talks, the Rockets miraculously talked themselves out of a negative leverage situation and set up its present and future in a matter of hours.  Any doubts cast about the new front office in Houston headed by Rafael Stone were eliminated Wednesday, as a toxic situation stunningly turned into one of the league’s best.

---

The Indiana Pacers saw an opportunity as the Harden trade developed.

Oladipo has wavered on his commitment to the franchise ever since returning from his quad injury suffered in 2019.  The summer and subsequent Bubble was marred by trade rumors, questions about opting in or out of Orlando and struggles with his play on the court.

Wednesday suggested that Indiana couldn’t trust Oladipo, and understandably so.  With free agency upcoming, the Pacers couldn’t afford to lose him for nothing.  Him bolting had to be their inkling, because a team as good as Indiana is – with as much promise and potential, too – doesn’t trade their potential best player like this without real cause.

But the Pacers did what they had to do, and made out quite well.  While Oladipo might reduce their ceiling thanks to his perimeter shot creation and gamer attitude on both ends, LeVert brings a similar offensive prowess even if it’s a tad less impactful.  The defense isn’t there with him, but a lack of LeVert on the roster leaves Indiana with just Malcolm Brogdon outside the paint to create shots for himself and others.

Contract situation aside, Oladipo could have been a bit expendable thanks to Domantas Sabonis’ emergence as a shot creator for himself.  The nifty passer has thinned out, added explosiveness and gotten to the rim with ease so far this season, giving Indiana another weapon to deploy late in games.  Sabonis’ games just continues to evolve, and the Pacers are reaping the benefits of it.

The questions for LeVert entering Indiana revolve around what’s likely to be another change in role.  He was thriving off the bench as Brooklyn’s sixth man – where he was given freedom to play his way, create and run the show.  The Pacers are an organized team, with a sets revolving around Sabonis and Brogdon handling the ball.  LeVert could emerge as the team’s go-to scorer if they need it, but how far does that ultimately get the Pacers?

LeVert’s likely going to be adjusting once again, which could lead to a decrease in performance.  His high volume scoring will help mitigate the loss of TJ Warren, who figures to be out a “significant portion of the season,” according to ESPN.  When Warren is back, Indiana has significant firepower between him, LeVert, Brogdon and Sabonis.  In the meantime, Aaron Holiday likely slides into the starting lineup, balancing out efficiency issues LeVert may bring to the table.

Indiana sold high on Oladipo, and got out of losing him for nothing. The Pacers operated similarly to Houston, and acquired value out of a low-leveraged position.  A lot of front offices justified themselves Wednesday, but the biggest surprise might be the group below.

---

The idea of the Cleveland Cavaliers acquiring yet another big man was silly.

Swamped with Andre Drummond, JaVale McGee, Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., Thon Maker and the unanticipated Dean Wade, the last thing Cleveland needed was another front court presence.

But Jarrett Allen is different.

The Cavaliers had been operating two different timelines with their roster: the youthful backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland and the aging front-court with seemingly washed up veterans.

It had worked.  Cleveland has been playing way better ball than expected this season, mostly thanks to the tenacious defense of rookie wing Isaac Okoro and the dynamism of Sexton and Garland.  Drummond is also partially responsible, turning himself into player that could find himself on a contender by the trade deadline.  

Still, the ceiling on that squad was low.  Cleveland has routinely played lineups with three or four of the players listed above together, with Nance Jr. playing at the 3 or even the 2.

Now, the Cavaliers have a lineup of the future in place, with Allen’s 22-year-old frame at the center of it.  By the time Love’s contract is up, Drummond is moved and McGee is gone, Cleveland will have a young, solid eight man rotation – with one more wing being the missing piece.

The trade was a no-brainer for the Cavaliers, as Allen was acquired for the price of a second round pick.  Allen’s capable of being the starting center on a Finals contender as a 22-year-old, and Cleveland got him essentially for free.

Here are some thoughts on from Super Wild Card Weekend followed by a look at the head coaching landscape throughout the NFL.

Bills-27 Colts-24

• Blame analytics and Frank Reich’s coaching all you want, but this game ultimately came down to Buffalo’s explosive offense.
• Sure, kicking on fourth-and-goal on the four yard line instead of going for it with 1:52 left in the first half might have provided the Colts with the three points needed to get Saturday’s game to overtime, but Indianapolis also missed a field goal on their first drive of the second half – which represents those same three points – and squandered a gift from the officials on the last drive of the game.
• The Colts two plays immediately after the (unnecessary) review were the dagger.  No rhyme or reason existed for either.  Indianapolis only needed 16 yards for a reasonable kick and neither play was predicated on completing that objective.
• Zach Pascal’s fumble being upheld as “down by contact” had the potential to be one of the worst blown calls in playoff history if Indy capitalized on it.  The refs throughout the game reviewed plays that didn’t needed to be looked at.  If the plays did, then the review went on way too long.  The end of the game only epitomized the issues that plagued it throughout.
• Indy had chances to win even outside of its own mistakes.  The Colts got down two possessions and simply couldn’t close that gap up.  They let Allen run all over them.  Jonathan Taylor had just two good runs.  Phillip Rivers only averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, thanks to a second half which saw downfield passing opportunities close up for the 39-year-old.
• Blame the call on fourth down all you want, but Buffalo was just better.  Overtime gives no promises.  Reich’s decision represented a higher ceiling for Indy in the game.  If they convert, the Colts are up two possessions instead of down two.  That arguably puts the game away, and is a much better guarantee than overtime.

Rams-30 Seahawks-20

• This was what we feared with Seattle.
• The Seahawks looked nearly unstoppable early in the year and suffered a perhaps greater than expected regression after its start, leaving their viability in the playoffs to be one big ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
• There was no way to the trust the offense coming in.  Its turnovers – mostly thanks to the sudden carelessness from Russell Wilson – and the Rams formidable defense made betting on Seattle a risky proposition.
• Our fears were right.  The Rams stifled everything the Seahawks did.  Wilson was downright horrible, going 11/27 for 174 yards.  He was sacked five times without Aaron Donald on the field for over a quarter.  He fell victim to a pick-six, which was more of a great play by Darious Williams than a bad throw, but it ultimately put Seattle down two possessions early after their slow start.  For an offense that’s been as jammed as the Seahawks’ has, a turnover like that was a death sentence.
• It was so important that Seattle couldn’t even fight its way back against an offense partially led by a QB making his second-ever career start and Jared Goff with a broken thumb.  Goff did enough – when he threw he wasn’t holding back.  Cam Akers made up for the Rams’ troubles at QB, gashing Seattle consistently on the ground and eating clock while doing so. But it was the Rams defense that put Seattle in a cage, locked them up and ran away with the game.
• Seattle needs another playmaker on offense.  That – in addition to getting younger up front offensively and keeping its defense healthy – will allow the Seahawks to make their early season form a consistency. 

Buccaneers-31  Washington-23

• Concerns similar to those held about the Seahawks followed Tampa Bay into this game.  Both teams teetered on them, with Seattle falling and the Bucs escaping.
• The inconsistency was on full display.  Tampa Bay couldn’t pull away from Washington the way we expected them to.  The Buccaneers defense let Taylor Heinicke hang around, who wasn’t amazing but beat expectations in his second career start, thanks to incredible poise he displayed while in the pocket.  Tom Brady finished just above the 50 percent mark completing passes.  Tampa couldn’t contain Cam Sims.  It wasn’t exactly a performance that should make us ooze with confidence in them.
• Heinicke is too old for Washington to consider him to be a part of their future, but he should serve as a nicely-paid backup QB for somebody next year.
• A ton of credit should be given to Washington for this game and everything they accomplished this season with Alex Smith coming back and playing quite well.
• Tampa, meanwhile, has a date coming up with New Orleans where they will likely be the underdog, and deservedly so.

Ravens-20 Titans-13

• In what was really two different games, Baltimore proved (for now) that their run to close the regular season was much more about them getting right than a fluke.
• After Tennessee took a 10-0 lead, the Ravens and Lamar Jackson turned into the team and player we saw last season.  Jackson’s legs were an unstoppable force.  The Ravens defense turned Ryan Tannehill into his Miami self.  It also stuffed Derrick Henry in his tracks.
• When you take away Henry from the Titans, it forces their offense into flux.  Tannehill’s improvement over the past two seasons has been incredible,  but there’s still aspects of his game that haven’t and won’t change.  Take away play-action from him – as Baltimore did Sunday – and Tannehill’s still among the average tier of QBs in the league.
• It’s a massive credit to Baltimore overall.  Stopping Henry is no easy task, but the offense’s ability to turn on the jets and execute exactly when needed made the defensive effort mean that much more.
• Tennessee had a chance to take the lead late.  They got into Baltimore territory with about 10 minutes left and hit a 4th and 2 “wall” at the 40 yard line, and punted instead of going for it.
• Ultimately, it was a time wasting move.  The Ravens only scored a field goal on the ensuing drive to make it 20-13, but Tennessee was then left with just one possession to make up the deficit, which ended in an interception that was partially Tannehill’s fault and partially the field’s fault as his intended receiver slipped.  There’s a good chance that without Kalif Raymond falling down, the pass would’ve been picked since it was a bit high.
• Mike Vrabel’s call to punt wasn’t a vote of confidence in his defense – it was one in his offense.  And based on how that group had played in the second half, it couldn’t have been more wrong and misguided.

Saints-21 Bears-9

• This is what Mitch Trubisky in a playoff game looks like.
• It started off okay.  Trubisky showed a bit of a willingness to push the ball downfield, but only truly connected on one of them thanks to a penalty and Javon Wims’ horrible drop in the end zone – which if caught would have tied the game at seven late in the first quarter
• After that drop, everything seemed to fall apart for the Bears.  Trubisky took the crown as the checkdown, short throw king.  David Montgomery was way too involved for how ineffective he was.  The offense simply couldn’t move the ball, and killer penalties on both sides of the field (including a million false starts) didn’t help.
• New Orleans’ offense wasn’t that much better in terms of aggressiveness. The Saints just possessed the play-makers Chicago didn’t.  Their running game showed up, with Alvin Kamara running for 99 yards and a touchdown.  Short passes got action after the catch from Deonte Harris and Michael Thomas, who picked apart the Bears zone defense like it was nothing.  
• New Orleans could move the ball despite their QBs limitations.  Chicago couldn’t.

Browns-48 Steelers-37

• You know those games where it’s so evidently clear from the very beginning that it’s going to go a certain way?  That was how this one went.
• The high snap by Maurkice Pouncey on the very first play from scrimmage that rolled into the end zone and gave the Browns a 7-0 lead right off the bat was the catalyst for the feeling described above.  Pittsburgh – which has an offense not designed to come from behind thanks to its washed up, dink-and-dunking QB – was in a hole from the very start.  And before they could climb out of it, it only got deeper.
• The Steelers’ next drives were additional disasters.  Roethlisberger threw a bad interception once they got the ball back, which Cleveland capitalized on immediately thanks to Nick Chubb.  A three-and-out followed, which the Browns converted into a 21-0 lead.  Then another pick followed – this time not Roethlisberger’s fault – which put the nail in the coffin before the casket was even picked as the Browns turned it into a 28-0 before the first quarter ended.
• Pittsburgh didn’t go out uninspired.  It had the Browns on edge for a little bit in the second half, but four possessions ultimately became too insurmountable.  An unwise decision to punt on 4th and 1 with a quarter left while down just 12 thwarted the comeback.
• While it wasn’t all their own doing, the Browns looked scary Sunday night.  Pittsburgh’s defense is good, and Cleveland gashed it with the duo of Chubb and Kareem Hunt.  They may not be able to put up as many points as Kansas City, but they could come quite close next weekend.
• As for Pittsburgh, Sunday isn’t who it truly was, but 11-0 wasn’t either.  The Steelers were destined to run out of steam at some point – an offense that has that much trouble moving the ball can only be supported so heavily by the other side, no matter how much talent may exist.  Decisions from players and the front office await in Pittsburgh this offseason, and 2021-22 could bring about a much different team than we’ve been used to.

On the head coaching mill…

Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is the hottest name on the market, and deservedly so.  There are four teams that should be leaning toward hiring him, and if they can’t, they should be in the business of hiring an offensive-minded, potentially play-calling head coach instead.

Those four organizations are the Jets, Texans, Eagles and Chargers.  Why them and not Jacksonville, Atlanta or Detroit?  Well, New York either needs someone to A) Turn Sam Darnold into the quarterback the Jets traded up for in 2018 despite limited weapons or B) Develop a rookie QB taken at No. 2 overall in the upcoming draft despite limited weapons.  The Chargers defense is among the best in the league from a talent standpoint and just needs to stay healthy, negating the need for a head coach who focuses on that side of the ball.  Plus, if Justin Herbert had the season he did with bad coaching, then imagine what’s possible with good coaching.  

The Eagles recent firing of Doug Pederson seems to be a culmination of a couple things.  It’s not his 100 percent his fault that Carson Wentz likely isn’t who we thought he was.  It’s also not his fault that Philadelphia has been ravaged by injuries since its Super Bowl winning season, and that no overhaul of the medical and training staff has taken place since then.  It is on Pederson – however – that he wasn’t Frank Reich, who seemed to unlock Wentz before he tore his ACL.  Philly needs someone who’s going to be able to do what Reich, for reasons we’ll address below.

Finally, there’s Houston, which seems to be a complete and utter fiasco organizationally right now.  Nobody could use Bieniemy more, and the Texans have refused to even interview him – irking franchise QB Deshaun Watson to the degree that he might be on the trade block.  With limited talent and draft capital, Houston has to make something out of nothing offensively outside of Watson.  No better coach exists to do that than Bieniemy.  If Houston uses its brain, Bieniemy should be the hire, no matter what the bill to ownership might be.

If that is what Houston does, here’s how the rest of the market should play out:

Brian Daboll: Jets

The Jets and Chargers don’t need to pony up the money for Biememy as much as Houston does, especially considering the consolidations that are available.

Daboll’s ability to elevate Josh Allen from a talented and incredibly frustrating QB to an MVP candidate makes him a prime candidate to turn Darnold around, if that’s what the Jets intend to do.  If not, Daboll’s developmental skills would serve whichever QB the Jets take in the draft well.

Darrell Bevell: Chargers

Justin Herbert put up an Offensive Rookie of the Year performance under a staff that likely didn’t maximize him.  While Titans’ offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would be the perfect fit here, the new opening in Philadelphia should be where he ends up.

The Chargers get one of the best options left.  Bevell has been a hot name since his Seattle days, and has never gotten a shot.  Him working with Herbert would be a blast, and ignite the Chargers offense to a whole new level.

Robert Saleh: Falcons

Atlanta needs a culture change and a reset on the defensive end.  The Falcons roster, like the Chargers’, is consistently banged up and just needs health to be successful.  Experience is aplenty on the offense, and Atlanta could use Saleh’s leadership and defensive prowess to get back to the playoffs.

Jaguars: Brandon Staley

Assuming Trevor Lawrence is who Jacksonville selects No. 1 overall in April’s draft, Staley makes the most sense.  Lawrence doesn’t need an offensive mastermind to be his head coach – he’s good enough already.  Jacksonville’s defense is still incredibly talented, and even if Lawrence struggles, Staley has spent this year at the helm of a defense that dragged an offense almost single-handily to round two of the playoffs.

Lions: Doug Pederson

Detroit seemed locked into promoting Bevell until Pederson became available.  Now  the best option, Pederson would be an excellent fit while attempting to lift the Lions offense.  It seems as though Pederson needs at least some talent around him as a coach, and Detroit offers more of it than we may think – if they decide not to blow things up.

Eagles: Arthur Smith

The Eagles don’t need a quarterback developer.  They need a fixer and elevator.

The bottom line is that it’s not possible or worth it for Wentz to not be on the roster next season.  Cutting him would put the team in salary cap hell, while trading him would still incur a cap hit the size of his salary.  Wentz likely told the Eagles it’s him or Pederson, and Pederson was much easier to cut bait with, causing his firing.

This means Wentz is an Eagle next season, and also means he’s the starting quarterback over Jalen Hurts.  Philly has to get as much as they can out of Wentz and the offense.  Smith would be the perfect fit – the turnaround Tannehill experienced in Tennessee under him is exactly what needs to happen with Wentz in order for the Eagles to be successful.