Championship Saturday Preview

As promised, here are the rest of the previews for the big championship games today.

Big 12 Championship: No.14 Texas vs. No.5 Oklahoma

The last time these two played, it was exactly what we expected.  A high scoring, classic Big-12 shootout.  Except the team we didn’t expect to win won.

And you know what, that’s okay.  It’s the Big 12, and crazy stuff happens all the time.  That’s the way things go when you don’t play defense.

When Texas beat Oklahoma earlier this year, the reasoning was simple.  The Sooners turned the ball over three times and punted too much.  Texas had the better offense that day.

The Sooners simply have to clean it up this time.  They’re more talented and more explosive than Texas, and though Oklahoma has turned the ball over more times than the Longhorns this season, I trust the Sooners to not choke and not make mistakes.  It’s extremely likely the Longhorns are a little overrated; the committee loves to bump teams like them up.  A bad Sam Elhinger decision can flip the whole game, as the last meeting taught us with Murray’s mistakes.

October’s matchup saw a high number of bad possessions for both teams (At least, for these two’s standards).  If we define a bad possession by not scoring points and/or turning the ball over, the Sooners racked up a total of six, while Texas only had four, with zero turnovers.

Both of these offenses are incredibly potent; the Sooners especially so.  They’re No.1 in practically every offensive metric, including Football Outsiders’ Offensive FEI and ESPN’s Offensive Efficiency stat.  Texas comes in at 27th in FEI and 21st in efficiency.  Good, but not good enough to hang with Oklahoma.

Those metrics actually underrate the Longhorns a little bit.  Their point totals aren’t nearly as high as Oklahoma’s, but they can be when they want them to.  Texas has issues showing up, noted by weak performances against Kansas and Kansas State.  If they don’t show up against the Sooners, they’re going to get blown out of the Red River.

Trusting Texas to deliver is tough.  Oklahoma’s only let us down once, and that just happened to be against this team.  I don’t think the first game told us anything about Texas; it just happened to be a bad day for the Sooners against a future opponent.  To do it again, Texas is going to need that same luck.

Prediction: Oklahoma-42 Texas-35


SEC Championship: No.4 Georgia vs. No.1 Alabama

We’re at the point in this Alabama season where it may not even be worth breaking down things anymore.  There’s two things left to say about this team, and it’s that they are completely unstoppable and, even if they aren’t, I’m not going to predict it.

So yeah, I’m taking Alabama in this game.  It’s turned into a “I’m taking them till they prove me wrong”-like thing.

It’s absolutely incredible that I’m not really giving the 4th best team in the country a chance against the best.  These are both Playoff teams!  How is the gap this large?

It speaks to just how good this Crimson Tide team is.  The past two weeks haven’t been all that inspiring; it took Alabama a whole half against The Citadel and Auburn to get going and start the demolition.

Those two games seem to be a case of looking ahead, which seems odd considering that Nick Saban is not a coach that usually allows that to happen.  But it makes sense.  It’s hard not to try in football, but the past two weeks have shown us that Bama doesn’t really have to try to blow certain teams out.  Alabama put up most of their points in the 2nd half of their past two games, and the score looked like one that would take all four quarters to put up.

The difference today is that Alabama won’t be unprepared and won’t stagger early.  They can’t hang around against Georgia; the Bulldogs offense is really good and explosive.  But compared to Bama’s, it’s still not really close.

This isn’t very insightful, but the Crimson Tide are just better.  And until they prove us that they aren’t, we have to keep rolling with them.

Georgia might be able to keep it close, but this feels like a two possession game throughout.  The Bulldogs are too good to get blown out, but a bad drive, which is bound to happen, might be too costly for Georgia.

Prediction: Alabama-31  Georgia-17


Big Ten Championship: No.21 Northwestern vs. No.6 Ohio State

In the 2nd powerhouse vs. “How did you end up here?” championship game of the day, Northwestern and Ohio State meet to hash out the country’s 2nd worst conference.

There’s two ways to evaluate the Big Ten.  The first way is to simply say “Well, Northwestern made the conference championship, so that’s all you need to know.”  The 2nd way is to make the case that in a conference where there are so many above-average but not necessarily good teams, it took a lot of grit of Northwestern to come out of it and make it here.

But the Wildcats didn’t really grind it out here.  They got an easy Big Ten schedule and faced the bottom of the conference, among the likes of Illinois, Minnesota, Rutgers and Nebraska in four of their 12 games.

At the same time, Northwestern started their year 1-3, and finished 7-1.  They pulled off “upsets” against Michigan State, Iowa and Wisconsin in that stretch, with Michigan State and Wisconsin coming off as games that should be won regardless of ranking.

The Wildcats faced quality opponents, but fell to all of them.  The Notre Dame game was interestingly close, and can give us some pointers as to whether Northwestern can stay in today’s game.

The Fighting Irish didn’t blow out the Wildcats like they do most teams.  Northwestern’s 22nd ranked defense by FEI showed up, and they held Notre Dame to just 31 points.  The Wildcats don’t allow drives to result in points, according to Football Outsiders’ DDS.  Yards can be racked up against this defense.  Points not so much.

And that was evident against Notre Dame.  Ian Book threw for 343 yards, and six Fighting Irish receivers had receptions of 20+ yards.  But the point spread never got out of control, and it allowed the Wildcats to stay in it despite a horrid offensive night.

Northwestern has the formula to beat the Buckeyes.  They have a good enough defense to give them issues.  It’s ballsy saying this after Ohio State drubbed one of the best defenses in the country, but a reminder that this is Ohio State we’re talking about.  Who knows when they’re going to show up.

This is absolutely the type of game the Buckeyes can lose.  They’re up against a frisky team that can stall an offense and match that productivity with their own.

The problem is that Northwestern’s offense is just dreadful.  They rank 83rd in FEI and have zero passing game.  They ground and pound, using Isaiah Bower 2/3s of the time and Jeremy Larkin the other 1/3.  It got them just enough this season.

Northwestern’s best hope for this game is for it to go exactly like last night’s Pac-12 Championship Game, except for the team that preforms just slightly worse to come out on top this time.  Utah was brutal offensively, but Washington wasn’t much better, allowing the Utes to stay in it.

But predicting the Big Ten game ending up exactly as the Pac-12’s relies on Ohio State’s offense crapping the bed.  You could say they’re due after last week, but you could also say that the Michigan win has given them a huge boost of confidence.

Once again, we’re trying to predict what we’re getting out of the Buckeyes.  We’re trying to predict whether they show up or not.

If this was against any other team, a team that was even slightly better offensively than Northwestern is, then I’d go against Ohio State.  But after watching Utah last night, a team that’s built extremely similarly to Northwestern on the offensive side of the ball, get totally shut down by the Huskies, it’s just too hard.

Prediction: Ohio State-28  Northwestern-10